I didn’t buy shares in Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), better known as SpaceX. People have been asking me if I did, though, while at the same time telling me they think the valuation is insane.

There was no way I was going to stump up cash at IPO for a company that’s been so astonishingly hyped and isn’t making any profit. SpaceX has lost $41.3bn since it was founded — and its AI business is burning through cash like it was rocket fuel.

So what happened?

Of course, the stock soared 19% from its $135 offer price to close Friday at $160.95.

But I don’t mind missing out. In fact, I’m sure the fear of missing out (FOMO) lay behind many people rushing to oversubscribe the offering. Retail investors put in orders for $100bn — though what they got will depend on individual allocations. Even UK investors piled in to the tune of $364m.

You know what history teaches us about massively-hyped IPOs that climb on their first day? They have a tendency to lose their gains, and often a lot more, in the coming quarters. History doesn’t account for Elon Musk, mind.

What’s it really worth?

I won’t attempt to work out where I think the true valuation should lie. That’s mainly because I have no idea how to value Musk’s brain. He does, however, appear to be a worthy successor to the late Apple founder Steve Jobs and his so-called reality distortion field.

Here’s a couple of common valuation measures that I reckon only the Musk factor could justify. I’m comparing price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of SpaceX and Tesla, with the four biggest Mag 7 companies…

That P/S for SpaceX is about nine times the average for the four non-Musk stocks. And tech stocks tend to be valued higher anyway — the average P/S for the S&P 500 is about three.

Tesla’s P/S appears a bit more down to earth, relatively. But electric vehicle sales haven’t been sparkling. And just look at those enormous P/E valuations.

But might it just…?

In a message on X on Sunday, Musk said he believes SpaceX could bring in $1trn in revenue by 2030. And he added: “I would be surprised if revenue is not greater than $1T in 2031.” That’s more than 50 times 2025 revenue.

But if it comes off, it could drop that astronomical P/S ratio to only a bit over two. And that could make the stock screaming cheap. So while I don’t like the valuation today, we could be looking at a seriously profitable AI-in-space company in the years ahead.

A decade from now, I really might be looking at a missed opportunity. But I think I see a fair chance of better opportunities at lower prices in the future. I’ll keep resisting the FOMO.

Should you invest £5,000 in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. – Class A right now?

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Alan Oscroft does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.