The Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock price has taken a bit of a dive. Since the start of 2026, it’s down close to 30%. Considering the beating that Space Exploration Technologies (better known as SpaceX) has taken in the weeks following its IPO, is CEO Elon Musk’s magic starting to fade?

The range of broker price targets on Tesla vary wildly — perhaps more than any other stock out there right now. There’s bullish optimism out there, for sure. But some of the more bearish estimates are really quite scary…

Bullish enthusiasm’s still there

Daniel Ives at Wedbush Securities tops the high-end estimates with a $600 target. He argues: “Tesla is morphing into a physical AI stalwart.” He reckons robotaxis, full self-driving, and humanoid robotics present substantial long-term revenue opportunities. And I really can’t disagree with that.

But AI research and development is consuming huge amounts of cash in capital expenditure. And that’s where the analyst conflict mainly lies.

I don’t expect many people will doubt the revenue potential from an increasingly AI-powered world. But nobody can put any real expectations on it in numbers yet… people are just saying words like ‘billions’ and ‘trillions.’

You think it’ll fall how low?

The low-end estimate from mainstream brokers comes in around $125. But analysts at GLJ research hit the bottom end of the scale with a meagre $25 target a few days after July’s second-quarter earnings.

Tesla stock took a dive after the quarter brought a profit miss and negative cash flow. I do however, think the stance taken by GLJ, often seen steering a contrarian course, might be a little extreme.

But how are potential investors supposed to guess where Tesla stock might be headed when the highest analyst target is 24 times the lowest?

What does AI say about AI?

I asked ChatGPT to examine the full range of analyst opinions. And to put together some sort of percentage estimate as to where Tesla stock might go in the next 12 months. Here’s what it came up with…

• Price rise = 60-65%, based on bullish majority.
• Price broadly flat = 15%-20%, reflecting a number of Hold stances.
• Price fall = 20%-25%, due to some very low bear targets.

Investors should never make a Buy or Sell decision based on anything an AI chatbot says — and if I ask again next week, I’d wager I get a different answer. But even looking to the general broker Buy consensus behind this still needs great caution.

City experts do tend to weigh optimistically towards stocks making the headlines. There’s a strong Buy consensus out on SpaceX too, for example, while I see significant risk there at today’s valuation.

What should we do?

Just like my take on SpaceX, I’m genuinely optimistic about what the future could bring from Tesla. And I can see myself rating it a long-term Buy at some stage.

But right now I’m in ‘wait-and-see’ mode. And I’d suggest other investors might consider doing the same. In the meantime, I’m looking for stocks with attractive futures, but a good bit less risk…

Should you invest £5,000 in Tesla right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Tesla made the list?

Alan Oscroft does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.