Lloyds (LSE:LLOY) and NatWest (LSE:NWG) shares were having an up day today (15 October). As I type, they’re both in positive territory.
Admittedly, it’s a good day for the whole FTSE 100, which has risen 0.8% to reach 10,805. This puts the blue-chip index close to an all-time high.
Investors can thank data released this morning that showed the UK economy grew 0.1% in August, better than the 0.1% contraction expected. In the three months to August, it grew 0.7%, also better than anticipated.
Obviously this is positive for domestic lenders like Lloyds and NatWest. Likewise, Chancellor John Healey has also said he’s committed to lowering government borrowing. The IMF likes the sound of this.
However, Healey also just said something that could spell particularly good news for these two stocks…
Jewels in the crown
As everyone knows by now, the public finances are not in great shape, but defence spending needs to be higher to meet NATO commitments. This has resulted in lots of speculation about where the extra cash would come from.
One source could be banks, whose profits have soared in recent years due to higher interest rates. Bank bosses met Healey in Downing Street last week ahead of this month’s Budget. But reports suggest they left none the wiser about what lies ahead.
Healey is currently in Bangkok attending the annual IMF and World Bank meetings. Speaking to Bloomberg there, he said that banks are “a part of the jewel…in the British economic crown“.
He also told reporters that lenders are “hardwired into the economic fabric of this country and our future prospects”. This sounds like there might not be a tax raid on the sector.
Then again, he also added: “You know I’ve got decisions to take in the budget, and I will”. Clearly, the Chancellor doesn’t want to scare the horses and risk weakening the fragile economy. So we’re still none the wiser.
What dividend yields are the stocks offering?
Speaking of horses, the Black Horse bank has certainly been a jewel for investors in recent years. Its share price has soared almost 150% in just three years, while dividends have been rising by double digits.
The stock doesn’t look expensive, trading at about 8.8 times next year’s forecast earnings. There’s also a prospective dividend yield of 5%, above the FTSE 100 average of less than 3.5%.
Meanwhile, NatWest has done even better, surging about 210% in three years. Dividend growth has also been super-strong.
NatWest is similarly valued to Lloyds, but has a higher forecast yield of 6%. Both banks are using AI to cut costs and boost productivity, with Lloyds eyeing £2bn of savings over the next four years.
Of course, an increase in the surcharge that banks pay on their UK profits is an ongoing risk. After all, Lloyds and NatWest have far less international exposure compared to Barclays and HSBC.
But reading between the lines of Healey’s comments, I don’t expect banks to get clobbered in the forthcoming Budget, even if they have to pay slightly more.
And with Lloyds and NatWest shares still below recent highs and offering attractive yields, I think both are worth considering for income.
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Ben McPoland owns shares in HSBC.