Sometimes, a share comes along that stands out on almost any metric. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is one. In five years, Nvidia stock has soared 924%. The past decade has seen it move up an incredible 14,501%.
Currently, the company commands a market capitalisation of $5.6trn – the biggest in the world.
The share has moved up 37% over the past year and is currently less than 2% away from its highest-ever level. Can nothing stop Nvidia stock?
A real story of business growth, not just stock price momentum
Looking at the price chart for Nvidia, it can be tempting to wonder whether the dramatic rise over recent years makes sense, or is an example of stock market exuberance.
It could be that there is an element of both things at once, in fairness. But it is important to realise that, unlike some much-hyped stocks, Nvidia has both a massive (and massively profitable) business that continues to grow at an unusually strong rate for a company of its size.
Its most recently quarterly numbers, published last month, demonstrate the point well. Revenue was $96bn. Remember – that is not an annual number, but a single quarter’s worth of sales. Not only that, but the year-on-year revenue growth was an incredible 106%.
In the same quarter last year, the year-on-year revenue growth was close to half of that, at 56%.
So Nvidia is not only growing hugely – it is actually increasing its rate of growth. For a company with $1m in sales, that would be impressive. For one with $96bn in sales, it is simply phenomenal.
Operating income, meanwhile, grew even faster, at 124%. I see that as an example of economies of scale in practice. On top of that, operating cash flows grew even more strongly. They hit $24bn in the quarter, representing year-on-year growth of 157%.
Does the price make sense?
Can the chip giant keep growing at anything like this rate? Nvidia stock is close to an all-time high because the bulls think so. AI demand is huge and, for now at least, there is little sign of that slowing down.
Its proprietary technology gives Nvidia a significant competitive advantage. That is enhanced by its large installed user base.
But there are risks here, that could potentially see the Nvidia share price tumble at some point. One is the question of demand for AI overall. If it turns out to deliver less benefits than hoped, maybe companies will rein in spending.
Then there is a question about demand for Nvidia in particular. It is surging now but, as those numbers suggest, Nvidia chips do not come cheap.
That exposes a risk that lower-cost competitors will take market share from Nvidia, hurting its revenues and profits. Still, at 29 times earnings, the stock price does not look outrageous to me.
I think there are clear risks here but, for an investing willing to countenance them, I see Nvidia stock as worth considering even close to its all-time high price.
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Christopher Ruane does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.