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I don’t own either Vodafone (LSE: VOD) or BT (LSE: BT.A) shares, and given the telecoms sector’s record this century, I’m rather relieved I don’t. But should I consider buying them today? At times lately, I’ve been tempted.
Both stocks flew during the late 1990s dotcom boom, before crashing along with everything else. They’ve survived though, and have spent years rebuilding, while also heading down quite a few blind alleys. They have served up plenty of dividends along the way, particularly Vodafone, but share price growth has been in short supply.
Have they finally got their game heads on?
FTSE 100 comeback kids?
Vodafone closed at around 127p on Friday (September 18), having risen 49% over the last year. That sounds impressive, but the five-year gain is just 10%. It remains a long way from its dotcom era highs, but perhaps we should consign that comparison to history.
Full-year 2026 service revenue rose 5.4% organically to €33.5bn. It then climbed 5.2% in the first quarter of 2027. Vodafone expects adjusted free cash flow of €2.6bn-€2.9bn this year, against last year’s €2.6bn.
Vodafone doesn’t look too expensive, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.6. Unfortunately, it’s no longer the dividend hero of yore. The forecast dividend yield is 3.2%.
Which is the better value today?
BT closed at around 197p yesterday, down 1.4% over 12 months. Over five years the stock is up 29%, with dividends on top. Which is pretty underwhelming.
BT’s full-year 2026 revenue fell 3% to £19.7bn, while adjusted EBITDA was broadly flat at £8.2bn. Normalised free cash flow fell 6% to £1.51bn, although management expects about £2bn in FY27 and is targeting an impressive £3bn by the end of the decade.
BT trades on a trailing P/E of 18.2 but just 11 times forecast earnings. The forward yield is around 4.3%. But BT still carries around £20bn of net debt while capital expenditure consumed £5.1bn last year. Telecoms may generate heaps of cash, but they also consume huge amounts of it.
Neither’s an obvious bargain
So which offers better value? On the numbers alone, BT looks cheaper. It has a lower forward P/E, a higher dividend yield and a potentially significant improvement in free cash flow if management hits its targets.
Vodafone has the stronger recent share-price performance and appears to be making decent progress operationally, but the market has already noticed and priced that in. After a strong run for the shares, there’s a wider margin for error.
I’m still sceptical about both. This is an industry where customers can switch, nimbler rivals compete aggressively, and networks need constant investment. Both have had their moments and are worth considering, with BT my pick of the two.
But I’m not yet convinced either has escaped the telecoms value trap that has frustrated shareholders for decades. Instead, there’s an even better buying opportunity I’m looking at today…
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Harvey Jones does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.