by Bob Henson, Yale Climate Connections
July 19, 2026

A tropical storm watch was issued for the western Florida Panhandle on Sunday, July 19, after large but disorganized circulation over the northeast Gulf of Mexico was designated Tropical Depression 2 by the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center on Sunday morning. Although it may struggle to approach hurricane strength, TD 2 could develop a core of torrential rain as it sloshes toward the Louisiana coast by midweek. Moisture from the system may eventually stream into a frontal zone and feed intense rainfall over parts of Virginia and the Carolinas.

As of 2 p.m. EDT Sunday, TD 2 was centered about 170 miles south-southeast of Panama City, Florida, drifting northwest at a mere 1 mph (2 km/h). The depression’s top winds were only 30 mph (45 km/h). TD 2’s central pressure was a relatively high 1011 mb, and the storm’s large circulation was minimizing the pressure contrast between TD 2’s weak center and the surrounding environment, thus keeping the winds light.

Despite its unimpressive winds, TD 2’s large circulation was fairly well organized on satellite. Showers and thunderstorms (convection) were widespread across the northeast Gulf at midday, when day-to-day marine convection is often subdued after its typical nighttime peak. Over the past several days, heavy rains on the eastern fringe of TD 2’s circulation have hit parts of the southwest and west central coast of Florida. Totals ranged from 1 to 3 inches in Sarasota and Venice counties for the 24 hours ending Sunday morning, and there were several 3-day totals in the 6-7 inch range just west of St. Petersburg.

Forecast for TD 2

Well-defined steering currents will keep TD 2 drifting west-northwest through Sunday night, with a gradual speed-up expected thereafter. The official National Hurricane Center forecast as of Sunday morning brought the system near southeast Louisiana by Wednesday as a tropical storm, with a gradual westward bend predicted to take it near or over the Texas/Louisiana coast toward Houston by Friday. Whether this westward track ends up onshore, hugs the coast, or stays just offshore could play a significant role in TD 2’s future, especially in the strength of its winds. The next name on the Atlantic list is Bertha.

In their first simulations of TD 2 at midday Sunday, the HWRF and HMON mesoscale models were roughly similar to NHC’s forecast, bringing the system near southeast Louisiana by Wednesday as a tropical storm. NHC’s Sunday-morning forecast takes TD 2 to tropical-storm strength (top sustained winds of 40 mph) on Monday morning and to a peak of 60-mph sustained winds by Wednesday and Thursday, while the initial HWRF and HMON runs suggested the system could approach hurricane strength by Wednesday.

Although TD 2 will pass over near-record-warm waters in the northeast Gulf, other factors will work to inhibit any rapid strengthening. Increasingly strong wind shear over the next several days will plague TD 2, with the system protected only somewhat by the size of its circulation. A sprawling midsummer upper high will strengthen over the central U.S., pushing northeast upper-level winds around the periphery of TD 2 and eventually injecting dry air into the circulation. According to SHIPS statistical guidance from Sunday morning, wind shear will ramp up from a moderate 10 knots on Sunday to the strong 25-35 knot range from late Monday into Tuesday. Mid-level relative humidity around TD 2 is forecast to be in the 50-60 percent range through Tuesday, but then to drop below 50 percent, further hindering the storm.

Reconnaissance flights into TD 2 were slated to begin on Sunday afternoon, and the full pack of short-range, high-resolution model runs should be arriving later in the day, so we’ll likely have a better sense by Monday of how this system will evolve. Model guidance is much more reliable once a distinct center of circulation has formed. Among longer-range models, some of the European ensemble members from earlier Sunday developed the future TD 2 into a significant hurricane. However, these long-range models are primarily consulted for track guidance, as the short-range hi-res models are much more reliable for intensity.

On the currently expected track, heavy rains are a good bet near TD 2’s center of circulation. Some of TD 2’s moisture will be entrained northeastward into a slow-moving frontal zone extending from the Gulf Coast to the Virginia-North Carolina coast, where heavy rains and soggy soils will become an increasing concern through the week. We’ve already seen this kind of eastward extension of rain/flood risk in the year’s first named storm. Super-short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur made landfall near Houston in mid-June, but the bulk of Arthur’s heaviest rains and estimated $1 billion in flood damage occurred well to the east, from Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama.

Jeff Masters and Irene Sans contributed to this post.

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