by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, Yale Climate Connections
October 18, 2026

After lashing Guam as a Cat 4 super typhoon with 150 mph (240 km/h) winds, Super Typhoon Champi intensified just six hours later – at 0Z Sunday, October 18 – into a formidable Cat 5 with sustained winds of 165 mph (265 km/h), said the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The center of Super Typhoon Champi passed about 12 miles (20 km) south of Guam’s southern tip around 18Z (2 p.m. EDT) Saturday, Oct. 17. The northern eyewall barely grazed Guam’s southern tip, so the island escaped catastrophic wind damage.

JTWC initially analyzed Champi as a Cat 4 with 150 mph winds at 00 UTC Oct. 18, but in a subsequent forecast discussion, they noted they had reanalyzed the 0Z intensity, upgrading it to Cat 5. Champi is the ninth Cat 5 observed globally so far in 2026 (see below).

An eyewall replacement cycle significantly weakened Champi after its surge to Cat 5 strength. By 15Z (11 a.m. EDT) Sunday, Champi’s peak sustained winds were estimated to be 140 mph (225 km/h). The storm is projected to track steadily west-northwest this week, approaching the vicinity of Taiwan by week’s end. With exceptionally favorable conditions along its path for the next several days – light to moderate wind shear, a moist atmosphere, ample upper-level outflow, and unusually warm sea surface temperatures of 29-30 degrees Celsius (84-86 degrees Fahrenheit) – Champi is predicted by JTWC to regain Cat 5 status on Monday and to remain near the Cat 4/5 threshold into midweek.

Guam typhoon history

Guam (pop. 170,000) has extensive experience with typhoons. According to the NOAA historical hurricane tracks website, from 1948-2025, no fewer than 27 typhoons of category 1 or higher passed within 50 miles of Guam; 14 were major Cat 3 or stronger storms. Champi is the second major typhoon this year to come within 50 miles (80 km) of Guam, after Super Typhoon Bavi, which passed about 45 miles (75 km) north of Guam on July 5 at peak strength with 180 mph (285 km/h) winds. In addition, Cat 4 Typhoon Sinlaku passed about 110 miles (175 km) north of Guam on April 14.

According to EM-DAT, the international disasters database, the strongest and most destructive typhoon to hit Guam was Typhoon Karen of 1962, which hit the island Nov. 11 as a category 5 storm with 170 mph (275 km/h) winds, killing six and doing $2.9 billion in damage (2026 dollars). Guam’s deadliest typhoon was Pamela of 1976, which hit May 21 as a category 4 storm with 140 mph (225 km/h) winds, killing nine and doing over $700 million in damage.

Guam’s other typhoons of 2026

Super Typhoon Bavi passed about 2 miles (3 km) north of Rota Island in the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands on July 5 when at peak strength with 180 mph (285 km/h) winds. The storm’s large eye completely encompassed the island. Although no fatalities were reported, the mayor of Rota described the island as having been damaged or destroyed “in every aspect” by Bavi. Passing well north of the Philippines as a Category 1 storm several days later, Bavi triggered heavy rains and landslides that killed 23 people and left 18 missing across the Philippines. Bavi later hit China as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph (150 km/h) winds on July 12. Technically, we can’t credit Bavi with making landfall in Rota (and thus the U.S.), since the center of the eye passed 2 miles north of the island. But regardless of technicalities, Bavi was catastrophic for Rota. Damage from the storm has not yet been quantified.

Super Typhoon Sinlaku peaked with 185 mph (295 km/hr) winds a few hundred miles southeast of Guam on April 12, making the typhoon Earth’s strongest storm of 2026. Sinlaku weakened to a Cat 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/hr) at landfall in the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands on April 14, with the storm’s large eye passing over both Tinian and Saipan simultaneously. Sinlaku killed 17. Sinlaku is being blamed for $458 million in damage to Guam, and over $1 billion in damage to the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands.

Sinlaku was the 10th Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone to make landfall in a U.S. state or territory in the past 10 years; that’s as many Cat 4 and Cat 5 landfalls as the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coast suffered over the prior 57 years.

This year’s other Category 5 storms to date

Counting Champi, at least eight Category 5 tropical cyclones have developed around the world in 2026, and perhaps nine if Choi-Wan is confirmed (see below). The others to date:

• Super Typhoon Choi-Wan, 160 mph (285 km/h) winds, 925 mb central pressure, October 4, several hundred miles north of the Northern Mariana Islands in the western Pacific. Based on the initial six-hourly analyses, Choi-wan’s peak winds hit 155 mph, just a hair below Category 5 strength. However, according to a retrospective analysis from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Choi-wan briefly reached Category 5 strength for six hours, as reflected in the typhoon’s tracking map on Wikipedia and polarwx.com. However, the 6-hourly tracking data available at ucar.edu does not show this upgrade, so the official peak intensity of Choi-Wan will have to wait until a post-season review is completed.
• Hurricane Polo, 180 mph (285 km/h) winds, 892 mb central pressure, September 22, a few hundred miles south of Mexico in the eastern Pacific. Polo was the second-strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record by pressure, behind 872-mb Hurricane Patricia (2015). Polo tied Hurricane Rick as the third-strongest eastern Pacific hurricane by maximum sustained winds, behind Patricia (2015) and Linda (1997). Polo spent more time at Cat 5 strength than any eastern Pacific hurricane on record. Polo underwent multiple eyewall replacement cycles and reintensified to Cat 5 strength twice more, making it the first eastern Pacific “threepeat” of Cat 5 (not counting Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke of 2006, whose third time was exclusively in the western Pacific). Polo made landfall as a low-end category 3 storm with 115 mph winds on Sep. 28 on Mexico’s Baja Peninsula near Puerto San Andresito. The hurricane moved over the Gulf of California and made a second landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico on Sep. 29. Moisture from Polo streamed into the Southwest U.S. and Plains, causing damaging flooding. Polo killed three and caused over $100 million in damage to Mexico.
•  Hurricane Lowell reached maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) and a central pressure of 927 mb on September 2, a few hundred miles south of Hawaii in the central Pacific. Lowell passed just west of Kauai and Niihau as a high-end category 2 storm with 110 mph winds on Sep. 7. Lowell’s large circulation meant significant impacts spread well beyond the eye, and Lowell caused $500 million to $1 billion in insured damages to Hawaii, primarily on Kauai.
• Hurricane Genevieve, 160 mph (260 km/h) winds, July 27, over the remote northeast Pacific off the coast of Mexico.
• Super Typhoon Dolphin, 175 mph (280 km/h) winds, July 5, a long-track typhoon over the northwest Pacific. After passing south of Japan’s Ogasawara Islands, Dolphin weakened to a Cat 2 but still brought damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to parts of southern Japan, disrupting transport and prompting widespread evacuations. On August 9, Dolphin made landfall on China’s eastern coast as a Cat 1, triggering the evacuation of more than one million residents, extensive flight cancellations, and notable infrastructure damage from flooding and storm surge. According to insurance broker Aon, total economic losses may reach tens of millions of USD.
• Super Typhoon Bavi, 180 mph (285 km/h) winds, July 5, a long-track typhoon over the northwest Pacific. Bavi’s center passed about 2 miles north of Rota Island in the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands on July 5, at peak strength, with the storm’s large eye completely encompassing the island. The island’s mayor described it as being destroyed “in every aspect.” Passing well north of the Philippines as a Category 1 storm several days later, Bavi triggered heavy rains and landslides that killed 23 people and left 18 missing across the Philippines. Bavi hit China as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph (150 km/h) winds on July 12. Technically, we can’t credit Bavi with making landfall in Rota (and thus the U.S.), since the eye passed 2 miles north of the island. But regardless of technicalities, Bavi annihilated Rota.
• Super Typhoon Sinlaku, 185 mph (295 km/hr) winds, April 12, southeast of Guam, over the northwest Pacific. Sinlaku made landfall over the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands on April 14, with the storm’s large eye passing over both Tinian and Saipan simultaneously. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Sinlaku was a Category 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/hr) at landfall. Sinlaku killed 17 and caused about $1.5 billion in damage to the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam. Sinlaku was the 10th Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone to hit a U.S. state or territory in the past 10 years; that’s as many Cat 4 and Cat 5 landfalls as the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts suffered over the prior 57 years.
• Tropical Cyclone Horacio, 160 mph (260 km/h) winds, February 23, over the remote South Indian Ocean. Horacio did not affect any land areas.

The 1990-2025 average yearly number of Category 5 storms globally was 5.3; there were five in 2025 (Hurricanes Melissa, Erin, and Humberto in the Atlantic; Typhoon Ragasa in the Northwest Pacific; and Cyclone Errol in the South Indian Ocean).

As seen in Fig. 3, 2026 is now tied for third place for the most Cat 5s globally in a year since accurate satellite records began in 1982 (assuming Choi-Wan ends up being a Cat 5). (Note that some of 2026’s low-end Cat 5s may be downgraded to Cat 4 in post-season analysis, and two near-Cat 5s with 155 mph winds in the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Nolo and Hurricane Simon, may be upgraded to Cat 5.) The number of Cat 5s has increased globally since accurate global satellite data became available in 1982 (this increase is statistically significant at the 99.5% level). Numerous studies over the past 20 years have found that hurricane-strength storms are not becoming more numerous globally, but the fraction of such storms that reach Category 4 or 5 strength is growing and expected to keep growing, so the world is seeing more of these intense tropical cyclones, which tend to be the most deadly and destructive ones.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Trudy brushes the Mexican coast, and a nor’easter could take on subtropical characteristics

Hurricane Trudy borrowed the script from its immediate predecessor, Hurricane Simon, as it passed near the coast of Mexico’s Jalisco state on Saturday night while its center remained just offshore. As of 11 a.m. EDT Sunday, Cat 2 Trudy was centered about 115 mi (185 km) southwest of Cabo Corrientes, heading northwest at 8 mph (13 km/h) with top sustained winds of 105 mph. Hurricane warnings had been lifted, though tropical storm warnings remained in effect. Trudy’s gale-force sustained winds extended just onshore at times over the weekend, but hurricane-force winds have remained well offshore. The Jalisco coast could experience 4-6 inches (100-150 mm) of additional rain from Trudy on Sunday as the storm angles offshore and weakens, likely dissipating by midweek.

Yet another tropical cyclone is likely to develop later this week in the Eastern Pacific from a disturbance off the coast of Central America. Model ensembles suggest that any such system could recurve toward the northwest Mexican coast by next weekend or beyond. In its Tropical Weather Outlook issued at midday Sunday, the NOAA/NWC National Hurricane Center gave this system a 90% chance of development in the 2- to 7-day window.

NHC is also keeping its eye on a nor’easter-type low developing off the Carolinas on Sunday and Monday. The surface low is linked to an upper-level disturbance that was getting pinched off and left behind by a stronger, higher-latitude trough passing by well to the north. This cut-off system will meander for several days as it gradually organizes over unusually warm water for mid-October, pushing strong winds against the coast and prolonging high water. Several days of at least minor to moderate coastal flooding with breaking waves of 8-13 feet can be expected, especially from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the Delmarva peninsula and southern New Jersey. The Outer Banks have already seen evacuation orders for non-residents in anticipation of the connecting highway being closed, as occurred during the September Nor’easter.

In its midday Sunday outlook, NHC gave this system a 30% chance of taking on subtropical characteristics in the 2- to 7-day window. Regardless of any such development, flooding and erosion would likely remain the main threat, as ensemble models and the overall steering pattern suggest that the core of this system is unlikely to move onto the U.S. East Coast. Overland rainfall is forecast to be minimal except near the immediate coast. Should the system become a subtropical storm, the next name on the Atlantic list is Josephine.

Irene Sans contributed to this post.

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