An economist who has correctly predicted the World Cup winner three times has said The Netherlands will be this year’s champions.
Joachim Klement, a German national who works at an investment bank in London, constructs simulation models which so far have had a 100 per cent success rate.
It predicted Germany as the winners in 2014, France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022.
He says that The Netherlands will defeat Portugal in the final and that England will make it to the semi-finals.
The Netherlands would beat Spain in the semi-finals and England would be knocked out by Portugal – two decades after they were in 2006.
France, Belgium, Japan and Argentina are predicted to make it to the quarter-finals.
The strategist told the BBC: ‘Because I was right three times in a row, people now think that this model is unbeatable and that I obviously will have to be right as well next time.’
But originally, he made the model as satire to explore the ‘hubris of economists’ who think they can predict world events.
An economist who has correctly predicted the world cup winner three times has said the Netherlands will be this years champions (the players pictured in 2025)
But he urges people to take the model with ‘a pinch of salt’ as many factors are ‘completely unpredictable’.
‘Every match – especially when you have these high-quality teams playing against each other that are very similar in skills and quality.
‘It really depends on the form of the day, a ref call, a piece of luck in the sense of hitting the post versus the ball going in.’
Mr Klement’s model is based on factors such as population size, prosperity, climate, but also the FIFA ranking points, host-nation advantage and the current form of the teams.
It also includes a ‘luck’ metric which takes factors into consideration like unpredictability, match-day form, and randomness in tournament outcomes.
Mr Klement says all these factors only account for 50 per cent and the other half is luck. A poor performance of a footballer or a referee’s decision could also play a part.
Countries with a bigger population are more likely to be favoured to win as they have a larger pool of talent.
Climate is also a factor, for example if the players are acclimatised to the weather of the host country like if it is particularly hot or cold.
