The BP (LSE: BP) share price has been a source of comfort for me lately. I can’t be the only investor feeling that way. When my wider portfolio gets hit by bad news from the tragic Iran war, shares in the FTSE 100 oil and gas giant typically compensate by rising.

As I’m writing this (9 September), Brent crude has just hit $100 a barrel for the first time in two months. This follows the US destroying five Iranian tankers, as the combatants continue To target regional energy infrastructure.

BP shares tend to do well when energy prices rise. We saw this in 2022, during the Ukraine crisis. But there’s no guarantee it will continue. BP fell back as Europe weaned itself off Russian gas. Peace in the Middle East would have the same impact. I hope we get it.

What could the FTSE 100 stock be worth?

So what happens now? The 27 analysts offering one-year forecasts produce a consensus share price target of 610p. If correct, that would see the shares climb a modest 9.2% from today’s 558p.

Of the 30 analysts giving stock ratings in the past three months, most are positive:

• Strong Buy: 12
• Buy: 2
• Hold: 13
• Sell: 1
• Strong Sell: 2

Only three out of 30 would sell. But a high proportion suggest investors should hold, rather than buy more.

BP faces plenty of uncertainties. It’s made an embarrassing U-turn on its green transition, while activist investors and boardroom struggles add further volatility.

Climate change is another challenge. Yet the recent Gulf crisis has shown we’re still uncomfortably reliant on fossil fuels. BP shares are up 30% in the last year, and 82% over five.

Can the dividend keep growing?

Then there’s the income. Today, the trailing yield is 4.4%. That’s forecast to climb to 4.58% in 2026, then 4.77% in 2027.

BP doesn’t have an unblemished dividend record. It slashed shareholder payouts during the pandemic, although dividends have grown at a healthy lick since. Latest results (4 August) saw BP also raised its second quarter payout by 4% to 8.66 cents a share.

Q2 adjusted replacement profit jumped 143% to $5.7bn, mainly due to higher oil and gas prices. Free cash flow climbed 59% to $7.8bn.

BP was running a generous share buyback programme, but that’s been canned as the board focuses on strengthening the balance sheet and investing in new projects. Today, net debt is $22.25bn The board wants to cut that to between $14bn and $18bn by 2027.

This one looks good value

I think BP is well worth considering as a portfolio diversifier. The obvious risk is that events shift in the Gulf, and suddenly the oil price and BP are both falling.

But with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5, I still think it’s worth considering for those happy to invest in Big Oil. Not everyone is, understandably. Happily, there are plenty of other exciting dividend and growth stocks on the FTSE 100 today.

Should you invest £5,000 in Bp P.l.c. right now?

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Harvey Jones owns shares in BP.