by Irene Sans, Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, Yale Climate Connections
September 25, 2026

In brief:

• Category 5 Hurricane Polo in the Pacific has been battering several Mexican states. Dangerous surf and rip currents remain a significant concern. Polo is expected to make landfall on the Baja California peninsula on Monday.
• Hurricane Nolo could bring significant rainfall to Hawaii. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding is possible on the Big Island into the weekend.
• Category 4 Odalys in the Pacific will not affect land.
• Tropical Storm Fay in the Atlantic is expected to degrade by the beginning of next week over the open ocean.
• Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect across the Cabo Verde Islands in the Atlantic as a result of Tropical Storm Gonzalo.
• A nor’easter is expected to cause minor to moderate coastal flooding this weekend for the southern New England coast and the New York City area, including Long Island. Inundations of one to three feet above ground level will be widespread, especially at high tide, and many road closures can be expected. Runoff from weekend rains of one to three inches will exacerbate the flood potential.

The tropics have suddenly become remarkably busy, particularly across the Pacific, where three hurricanes are active at the same time. Polo remains an exceptionally powerful system off Mexico, Odalys is churning over the eastern Pacific, and Nolo is strengthening south of Hawaii, where the threat of severe flooding is becoming increasingly serious. Meanwhile, activity has also picked up across the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Fay is wandering across the central Atlantic, while newly formed Tropical Storm Gonzalo is much closer to land, bringing wind, heavy rain and dangerous seas to the Cabo Verde Islands and parts of the West African coast.

Although five named systems are active across the two basins, their impacts are very different. Some are primarily hazards to shipping, while others pose much more immediate threats to populated areas. And even though it’s not one of the tropical threats above, an unusually early nor’easter will bring heavy rain, beach-battering surf, and widespread high water to coastal areas from New Jersey to Maine.

Hurricane Polo remains an extremely powerful storm

The most intense of the current Pacific systems is Hurricane Polo as of Friday morning. In its 8 a.m. MST (11 a.m. EDT) advisory, the NOAA National Hurricane Center, or NHC, showed Polo centered about 410 miles (660 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. From Thursday night into Friday morning, Polo completed another eyewall replacement cycle and surged to Category 5 strength once again – which made it the first hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific to rack up three distinct periods of Cat 5 intensity. As of 11 a.m. EDT, Polo’s maximum sustained winds had reached 180 mph (285 km/h), while its minimum central pressure had dropped even further overnight to an estimated 900 hPa. Seas close to the hurricane were enormous, reaching around 41 feet (12.5 meters).

Fortunately, the hurricane’s extremely destructive inner core has been moving away from the southwestern Mexican coastline. That greatly reduces the risk of the catastrophic wind damage that would accompany a direct strike from a hurricane of this strength. But being offshore does not mean Polo has been harmless to the western Mexican coast. Polo has been battering several Mexican states, including Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and parts of Jalisco, with torrential rains that have prompted school closures. Dangerous surf and rip currents will therefore remain a significant concern, particularly along portions of southwestern Mexico, even as the storm moves again. Mariners should consequently give the hurricane a wide berth.

The longer-term track will also need careful watching. Polo is forecast to begin recurvature this weekend with the approach of a large upper-level low, gradually angling more toward the west-northwest and northwest before accelerating northeastward toward an expected landfall on the Baja California peninsula on Monday. Although this is a more straightforward track than we’ve seen up to now with Polo, landfall is still more than three days away, so communities along the southern Baja California coast should continue following forecasts rather than focusing on one particular track line.

Rainbands from Polo will begin impacting this region over the weekend. Widespread four- to eight-inch storm totals can be expected, with up to 10 inches of rain in some isolated spots across the Baja California Peninsula, causing landslides and flash flooding. Very heavy storm totals, perhaps up to 10 inches, are also possible on the other side of the Gulf of California over parts of coastal Sinaloa and Sonora states.

We will be monitoring Polo even after it makes landfall in northwestern Mexico, as the deep tropical moisture could bring more torrential rains that could once again prompt more flooding concerns across parts of New Mexico and western Texas – as well as other parts of the southwest and south central United States – by the middle of next week.

Nolo poses a serious threat to Hawaii

Even though it appears unlikely that intensifying Hurricane Nolo will make landfall in Hawaii, substantial impacts are quite possible, especially across Maui and the Big Island. Hawaii has already experienced direct and significant impacts from several hurricanes this season, including Fausto, Lala, and Lowell.

As of Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center indicated that Nolo was located 210 miles (335km) south of South Point on Hawaii’s Big Island, moving slowly toward the north-northeast at 5 mph (7km/h). Maximum sustained winds had increased to around 85 mph, making Nolo a Category 1 hurricane.

Nolo is forecast to become more powerful, likely going through rapid intensification during the weekend. The Friday morning NHC forecast of winds peaking at 140 mph (120 knots) would make Nolo yet another Category 4 hurricane in this hyperactive Pacific season. That intensity peak is predicted to happen as the system moves to the west, south of the Hawaiian island chain, and starts to make a turn to the northwest.

Rainfall could become the most dangerous aspect of Nolo. As NHC is stressing, catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding is possible on the Big Island into the weekend. Hawaii’s mountainous terrain makes tropical rainfall particularly dangerous. Moist air forced up the slopes of the islands can produce dramatically enhanced rainfall totals, while steep terrain allows water to run rapidly into valleys, streams and low-lying areas. That means severe flooding and mudslides can occur well away from the hurricane’s center.

As we have mentioned in recent posts, slow movement of Nolo through much of the weekend adds another concern, since a slowly moving tropical cyclone can push moisture over the same areas for an extended period, potentially allowing rainfall totals to build considerably. The exact track remains crucial. Relatively small changes in Nolo’s path could substantially alter which islands experience the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall.

Regardless of the precise position of the center, however, the Big Island faces a serious flooding threat, while increasingly rough seas and dangerous surf are also likely around parts of the island chain. Rainfall in the Big Island will be extreme: Localized totals of 25 inches (630 mm) of rain are forecast across the southeastern part of the Big Island, with widespread 12-20 inch (380-510 mm) totals over the eastern half of the island through Sunday afternoon.

Hurricane Odalys: powerful but far from land

Farther west is Hurricane Odalys. Odalys remains a substantial hurricane in its own right, contributing to the northern Pacific Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Early Friday, it was located nearly 1,000 miles away from Baja California Peninsula, with sustained winds of around 130 mph (215 km/h) and a minimum central pressure near 946 hPa. The Category 4 hurricane was moving toward the east-northeast at around 6 mph (9 km/h). Odalys will continue to meander over open waters without impacting land. Maximum seas were around 36 feet (11 meters). This hurricane is about to encounter higher wind shear and slightly cooler waters, which will gradually weaken it throughout the weekend.

Two more areas also brewing in the Pacific

Even with three hurricanes already active, forecasters are watching additional areas for tropical development. One area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions should then become favorable for development as the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to southern and southwestern Mexico. In its 2 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Discussion, NHC gave this system a 90% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next seven days.

Another broad low is forecast to form roughly 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hawaii during the weekend. Development is possible early next week, although current forecasts keep the disturbance well east-southeast of Hawaii. Its seven-day development probability is 60%.

Through early September 25, the eastern Pacific had already produced 16 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Its accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, was running around 54% above the 1991-2020 normal for this point in the season. The contrast with the Atlantic is striking. As of early September 25, the Atlantic season had produced seven named storms but still no hurricanes. Its season-to-date ACE was around 92% below the 1991–2020 normal, according to Colorado State University.

Tropical Storm Fay drifting across the central Atlantic

In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Fay is spinning over the open ocean well away from land. Early Friday, Fay was located more than 1,000 miles west-southwest of the Azores with sustained winds around 60 mph. The storm continues to lose speed and, as of Friday morning, is moving westward at 3 mph. Fay is entering an unfavorable environment, with higher wind shear and dry air expected to degrade the storm by the beginning of next week over the open Atlantic waters.

Gonzalo brings a more immediate threat to Cabo Verde

The Atlantic’s newest storm is Tropical Storm Gonzalo, and unlike Fay, it is already affecting areas close to land. Gonzalo developed from an area of low pressure just southeast of Cabo Verde. Early Friday, maximum sustained winds were around 50 mph (85 km/h), with the center approximately 115 miles (185 km) south of Sal Cabo Verde. The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 mph (17km/h), and it is forecast to likely cross portions of Cabo Verde by Friday night.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect across the Cabo Verde Islands, where tropical-storm conditions are expected to spread across parts of the archipelago. Gonzalo will maintain this strength before it enters a more hostile area. Increasing wind shear, cooler waters and progressively drier air should begin weakening Gonzalo over the weekend. Forecast guidance indicates that organised deep thunderstorms could disappear within around three days, with Gonzalo eventually becoming a post-tropical remnant low.

Rainfall totals between two and four inches (50 mm to 100 mm) are forecast across eastern portions of Cabo Verde through Friday and Saturday. Western islands should generally receive considerably less rain.

The storm’s moisture also extends eastward toward mainland Africa. Coastal areas from Guinea-Bissau through The Gambia and Senegal could receive around 50 to 100 mm (two to four inches) of rain, with locally higher totals possible near the coast. Flash flooding is consequently a concern in parts of western Africa, while isolated flash flooding is also possible across eastern Cabo Verde. Large swells generated by Gonzalo will also affect Cabo Verde through Saturday, creating potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Nor’easter cuts highway to North Carolina’s Outer Banks

The season’s first extratropical coastal storm (a “nor’easter”) developed Wednesday off the coast of North Carolina. The Nor’easter isn’t very strong by Northeast U.S. standards, but is unique for its very long duration — and for the fact that it is occurring in September, when only about 1% of all Nor’easters form.

The Nor’easter has brought major coastal flooding at high tide to northern North Carolina and to portions of Chesapeake Bay in Virginia the past three days. The only highway connecting North Carolina’s Outer Banks to the mainland, NC-12, was closed on Thursday in multiple locations because of extensive erosion and overwash, isolating over 4,000 residents. Severe damage to a 500-foot section of the highway was reported, and it is likely that road access to the Outer Banks will be cut for an extended period. The storm may significantly shorten the amount of time that a $42-million beach nourishment project — which was almost complete — will be able to protect the coast.

At high tide on Friday morning, the tide gauge at Duck, North Carolina, recorded its 8th-highest water level since records began in 1977, just 0.9 feet below the record set during Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Major flooding is predicted to continue through Saturday for northern North Carolina and the Chesapeake Bay.

Coastal flooding and beach erosion will work their way farther up the coast this weekend as the nor’easter’s surface low inches northward while intensifying. On Saturday night, the low will be hooking west, likely moving onto the New Jersey coast on Sunday. This will bring a prolonged period of huge surf, hellacious winds, and heavy rain to the coastal Northeast and New England. Through Sunday morning, a high wind warning is in effect for the coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with gusts up to 60 mph expected; surrounding this are gale warnings for widespread gusts up to 50 mph from Sandy Hook, New Jersey, to Long Island, New York, as well as most of the Maine coast.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is predicted this weekend for the southern New England coast and the New York City area, including Long Island. Inundations of one to three feet above ground level will be widespread, especially at high tide, and many road closures can be expected. Runoff from weekend rains of one to three inches will exacerbate the flood potential. Breaking waves as high as 12-13 feet could hammer coastlines as far north as Maine, and severe beach erosion is possible given the strength and duration of this storm.

Although this system is arriving very early in the season for a nor’easter, it is still a cold-core mid-latitude system, the type one expects from fall into spring. Over the weekend – depending in part on the storm’s exact track over the sharp offshore contrast in sea surface temperature – a shallow warm core could develop, and that could allow the nor’easter to take on some tropical or subtropical characteristics. One recent example of such hybrid development occurred in January 2023, when a storm initially tracked as a nor’easter was found in post-analysis to have taken on subtropical characteristics. That May, NHC formally declared the system to be an unnamed subtropical storm (01L).

The next name on the Atlantic list is Hanna. Whether or not this system fulfills its slim chance of being designated subtropical (in real time or afterward), the impacts will be significant, so residents should focus now on preparing for a long weekend of high-impact weather.

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