It’s long been an iron rule of politics that when a politician puts out a memoir, the sort of tome that lets readers see the soft and sensitive core to the hard outer shell, then they’re about to run for something.

And JD Vance, whose recent attempts to bring peace in Iran have had to compete in his diary with efforts to sell his new religion-focused autobiography, Communion: Finding My Way Back To Faith, is no exception, say insiders. The book cover may show a picture of a church but inside is a personal manifesto.

Vance camp sources tell the Daily Mail that the Vice President will announce he is running for the top job in 2028, as early as after this November’s midterm elections.

However, these insiders offer an even more startling assurance – that Marco Rubio, the man who is widely expected to be JD’s main rival for the Oval Office – will not be running against his good friend.

The Secretary of State may indeed have simply seen the writing on the White House wall. A new poll for the Daily Mail by public opinion researchers JL Partners finds that Vance’s chances of winning the 2028 primary ballot have soared just as Rubio’s have slumped.

Vance is now at 51 percent among Republican primary voters, up four percent on the previous month. Rubio is in second place, down three at 15 percent.

Meanwhile, Florida governor Ron DeSantis is at nine percent (no change) and Ted Cruz up two at six percent.

In a head-to-head of Vance vs Rubio, Vance would win by 65 percent (up seven) to 26 percent (down four).

Vance camp sources tell the Daily Mail that the US Vice President will announce he is running for President in 2028, soon after this November’s midterm elections

Vance insiders say that Marco Rubio will not be running against his good friend

A new poll finds that Vance’s chances of winning the 2028 primary ballot have soared just as Rubio’s have slumped

And the Daily Mail poll tallies with another recent survey by Navigator Research, a Democrat-aligned firm, which put his net favorability rating among Republicans at 62 percent, well above Rubio’s 51 percent.

What explains this sudden surge for JD? Well, he’s been putting himself out there, note Washington insiders. Not only has he gone out to bat for the US in Iran peace deal negotiations (despite having been a prominent Trump administration skeptic about the war) he has acquitted himself well in the myriad interviews he’s given to promote his new book.

Trump is not believed to have read it, but he reportedly saw clips of Vance venturing into the liberal bear pit of The View, ABC’s daytime talk show, and was impressed – as he was, says Vance himself, by sales figures for the book.

It cannot have hurt Vance either that Trump has cooled on Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israel, whose supporters – alarmed by the VP’s staunch opposition to the Iran War and determination to de-escalate the conflict – have been pushing Rubio.

Trump, as we know, loves winners and has recently become more convinced that Vance could be one in 2028, it is claimed.

Some will rightly argue that Vance faces rather bigger obstacles to becoming president than whether Rubio does or doesn’t challenge him. Like the Democrats.

Only one sitting Vice President – George H.W. Bush – has won a presidential election in 190 years and he did that, in 1988, while serving under a president (Ronald Reagan) with an approval rating of 63 percent.

Trump’s approval rating is currently in the low 40s and Vance, astonishingly, is even more unpopular. According to recent polls, only 36 percent to 41 percent of voters are favorable, while up to 56 percent of voters regard him unfavorably.

Some of the reasons, such as inflation and gas prices, cannot be laid only at his door. Others, such as his reputation for opportunism – from his wildly shifting views on Trump to his stance on Iran, opposing the war privately while supporting it publicly – can.

Women are particularly antagonistic towards him, reportedly put off by Vance’s comments such as his sneer about Democrats being ‘childless cat ladies’ and his views on abortion (although Vance insists they’re not as hardline as critics claim).

The President has stopped sounding out everyone he meets on which of his two acolytes should get the Republican presidential ticket.

He still harbors lingering hopes that Rubio will stand against Vance in the 2028 primary, say insiders, who note that Trump has a stronger personal chemistry with the Secretary of State.

The president is ‘much closer to Marco,’ acknowledged a source close to Trump. Rubio ‘is the guy who’s talking sports with Trump – they just have a much better relationship, they’re a little closer in age, they’ve developed that camaraderie.’ At 41, they note, ‘JD is younger than even Trump’s kids.’

According to a source familiar with the Vice President’s thinking, Trump is afraid of becoming irrelevant and sees his cherished kingmaker role under threat if Vance succeeds him without needing his help.

‘Trump would like Rubio to run because Trump wants there to be some kind of a close contest where it’s like an exciting episode of The Apprentice,’ the insider told the Daily Mail.

Another Vance insider predicted that, for that same reason, Trump will hold off endorsing a candidate until the last minute, ‘only because Trump does not want to make himself irrelevant’ and ‘once he gives the endorsement away, the conversation is on the post-Trump presidency, and he becomes a lame duck.’

Officially, Vance is refusing to talk about any 2028 ambitions. A spokesperson said: ‘Vice President Vance’s only focus is being the best Vice President he can be for the American people, serving under President Trump’s historic leadership and delivering on his America First agenda.’

Obviously, much could change before 2028 – starting with a resounding Democrat victory in the November Midterms – but members of the Vance camp are convinced that Rubio will not stand in his way if he runs for the White House.

A source close to Vance told the Daily Mail that Rubio is clearly not running for president in 2028 for the simple reason that he has built none of the machinery a national campaign requires.

‘The institutional campaign, the things that get you ready for a primary, need to have already started performing, especially when you’re going up against the president’s machine,’ said the insider, adding that Rubio ‘has not even remotely set it up.’

The source ticked off everything a serious contender would already have in motion: ‘You need state party leaders, you need endorsers, you need state party chairmen and people who do the campaigning on the ground. You need a digital operation. You need a ground game.’

Given Rubio lacks the staffing for a national operation as Secretary of State, he would effectively have to resign now and start building to have any realistic chance but – said the source – ‘he’s not even moving.’

The Daily Mail has reached out to Rubio’s office for comment. 

Vance, on the other hand, will inherit a vast donor network and has all the momentum. He has accounted for about $70million in contributions in fundraising for the Republican National Committee.

‘He’s inheriting the president’s organization. He doesn’t need to make a whole new one,’ the insider said. ‘The vice president has his own fundraising apparatus, his own major donors and small dollars and he knows all the state party chairmen, who would always support him.’

Another source close to Vance reiterated that they don’t believe Rubio will run in two years. The pair have been close friends – Vance has called Rubio ‘my best friend in the administration’ – since their days in the Senate, when they worked on bills together including the William S. Knudsen Defense Remobilization Act which demanded a national revitalization of defense production.

Ex-Senate colleagues say the two men not only agree with each other on many issues but relate to each other’s humble roots and shared sense of humor.

Such camaraderie has fueled an alternative narrative that some Republicans believe far more likely than Vance v Rubio – that they will run together with the Secretary of State as Vance’s vice president choice. (Trump himself mooted the idea last year, describing it as ‘unstoppable’).

To those who might point out that polling suggests that, in a general election, independent and swing voters would prefer Rubio to Vance, a senior Vance insider told the Daily Mail: ‘Many are hoping for the best of both worlds: Vance leading the ticket, Rubio as his VP. That’s the only way it works, and Rubio knows it.’

The source explained: ‘[Vance] has the vice presidency, and the infrastructure of the vice presidency is pretty hard to beat.’

Another senior Vance camp source was less diplomatic about Rubio’s chances, saying: ‘Rubio is a simply ridiculous candidate. It’s very hard to run for president as secretary of state, because Iowa and New Hampshire are not foreign countries. Rubio is just hopelessly stuck in the world of 2005.’

Officially, Vance is refusing to talk about any 2028 ambitions. A spokesperson said: ‘Vice President Vance’s only focus is being the best Vice President he can be for the American people

Vance has called Rubio ‘my best friend in the administration’

Vance has accounted for about $70 million in contributions in fundraising for the Republican National Committee

Even if it’s not Rubio, Team Vance are not expecting him to be unopposed in the 2028 primary, mentioning both libertarian Senator Rand Paul from Kentucky and Texas senator Ted Cruz as likely runners.

‘It’s healthy for parties to have competing visions and to see who comes out on top,’ a longtime Vance adviser told the Daily Mail. ‘Donald Trump was a more effective general election candidate in 2016 because he had a real primary.’

Cruz, who ran against Trump for the 2016 presidential nomination, is regarded as the biggest threat to Vance and is expected to have the support of Israel supporters determined to keep the VP out of the Oval Office.

The outspoken Texan, who is a highly effective fundraiser with ties to some of the Republicans’ biggest donors, is ‘clearly’ running, Vance told Megyn Kelly last month. Cruz, who sources say is already ‘building the infrastructure’ of another presidential bid, has called his 2016 run ‘the most fun I’ve ever had in my life.’ He said in 2023 that he would ‘fully hope and expect’ to do it again.

He’s in for a more disappointment if he does, a senior Vance insider told the Daily Mail. ‘Cruz will not do better than he did in 2016 – and 2016 wasn’t good enough. If anything, Cruz has lost altitude from a decade ago. It’s just not going to work for him against JD.’

Of course, Team Vance would say that. However, the fact that Washington is even having this conversation about whether anyone can stop Vance taking the Republican baton from Trump is remarkable given where the man from blue collar Ohio stood only two years ago.

Back in 2024, he was far from being Republicans’ first choice for Trump’s running mate. Many clearly regarded him with suspicion as the cynical opportunist who, after rising at lightning speed in politics, had poured scorn on Trump to the point of comparing him to Hitler.

JD Vance’s 2003 Middletown High School Ohio yearbook page 

In the lead up to the 2016 election, the avowed ‘Never Trumper’ had also called the president ‘reprehensible,’ an ‘idiot’ and ‘cultural heroin.’

Vance apologized to Trump for the ‘cultural heroin’ slur in 2021 – a month after Trump left the White House – and from then on did his best to ingratiate himself with the President and establish himself as one of his most ardent supporters after, he claims, warming to his policies.

However, even Vance admits in his new book that, with just a year’s experience in politics under his belt, he’d had no expectations of being selected as Trump’s 2024 running mate.

But he was judged to be more in tune with the MAGA base than more obvious choices – including Rubio.

He also had some very useful allies in Donald Trump Jr, with whom he’d bonded over their shared love of hunting, and venture capitalist Peter Thiel, who had been Vance’s boss at Thiel’s investment firm Mithril Capital.

Thiel bankrolled Vance’s 2022 bid to win an Ohio seat in the Senate and, as a major donor to the Trump campaign, was able to promote him down at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s de facto court in Florida.

Trump, say insiders, was particularly impressed by Vance’s academic record. ‘Somebody told Trump that JD Vance was number one at Yale Law [School], and Trump loves academic credentials,’ said a Vance camp source. Despite barely knowing Vance, following intense lobbying of Chief of Staff Susie Wiles by Donald Jr, Trump chose him.

Vance has made another influential ally in Trump’s White House chief-of-staff Susie Wiles who pushed Trump to ignore opposition from donors and endorse him for the US Senate.

Vance in turn argued that she should get her present job. ‘She’s been a big part of his political rise over the years, and they have a close relationship,’ said an administration source. The VP’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, is reportedly Wiles’s best friend, which must also help.

In government, Vance’s readiness to become a Trump attack dog – taking the lead role in a graceless verbal mugging of embattled Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office last year – has been clear.

That habit has hardly endeared him to the Democrats who developed a soft spot for Vance after the spectacular success of his moving memoir, Hillbilly Elegy. With its description of his hard-scrabble upbringing with an addict mother, it so effectively explained why working-class white Americans voted Trump.

However, all that snarling will have impressed any MAGA Republicans who might have lingering reservations about JD’s commitment to the cause. (To be fair to Vance, he hasn’t really shifted his hostile stance on Ukraine – in 2022, he told a podcast when he was running for the Ohio Senate in 2022: ‘I’ve got to be honest with you. I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.’)

Vance also counts Donald Trump Jr, with whom he’d bonded over their shared love of hunting, as an ally

Peter Thiel bankrolled Vance’s 2022 bid to win an Ohio seat in the Senate

Democrats developed a soft spot for Vance after the spectacular success of his moving memoir, Hillbilly Elegy

And more recently, even diehard Democrats have judged Vance to have acquitted himself well in a series of combative interviews he has given to promote his new book.

A panel of CNN commentators – usually the last place to find a JD fan club – certainly thought so, showering praise on him for not only his dramatic ‘glow up,’ including ‘the tan, the trimness, the sharp suits,’ but also his impressive performance as an ‘able communicator’ in hostile interviews.

Even his wife, Usha Vance, who is pregnant with their fourth child, notched up a media victory of her own recently when she poked fun on social media at a pretentious New York Times article sneering at her and the other ‘pregnant women of Trump world’ for smugly showing off their big bumps in their wardrobe choices. 

Vance’s new book, discusses his religious rebirth that culminated in his baptism at age 35 in 2019. It contains a passage describing a 2005 incident in which he lost control of his car on a road in the Appalachian Mountains.

It was sliding towards a cliff when his car suddenly halted. ‘Something stopped it – something beyond my comprehension or control,’ Vance writes. There are other apparently miraculous moments.

Critics have mocked him for making a shameless attempt to convince voters that he has been chosen by God.

But for the moment, it seems that just being chosen by Donald J Trump will do.