SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock has been on a wild ride since its debut in mid-June. Did we really expect anything else from an Elon Musk-run rocket firm valued at $1.75trn whose founding mission is to build a human colony on Mars?

Anyone who invested £10,000 at an intraday peak of $225 on 16 June would now have £5,100 or thereabouts. What they will have by this time next month will be influenced by the company’s first public earnings report, due later today (4 August).

But what exactly does Wall Street expect?

Big growth anticipated

According to my data provider, analysts expect the rocket-AI-telecommunications company to post Q2 revenue of about $6.8bn. That would represent a 45% jump from Q1’s $4.7bn.

Digging deeper, we see that the AI business is becoming a bigger slice of the overall pie. Revenue here is anticipated to have tripled to roughly $2.3bn, driven by AI compute deals signed with Anthropic and Google.

Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the Connectivity division housing Starlink, the fast-growing satellite internet business. Subscribers are expected to have topped 12m by the end of June, with the service being rolled out to more countries worldwide.

Starlink’s top-line growth is projected to be 52.6%, an acceleration from Q1. Lucrative government contracts are adding to growth here.

Big losses

However, the picture gets decidedly less rosy when it comes to forecast spending and losses. According to data from Visible Alpha, the AI segment’s quarterly capital expenditure will have ballooned to about $10bn.

The Space unit is expected to post a steep operating loss of $733m, largely due to Starship’s development. Remember though, SpaceX’s rockets are largely used for its own internal business goals (deploying Starlink satellites, etc). So growth here is structurally lower (for now).

All said and done, SpaceX should report adjusted EBITDA of almost $2.1bn, but a chunky overall net loss. Forecasts point to an adjusted loss per share of $0.23.

Taking the long view

Clearly then, the current financial picture is a bit of a mess. But anyone investing today really needs to be taking a five or even 10-year view with this stock.

Over this timeframe, SpaceX’s fully reusable Starship platform could dramatically lower the cost of accessing space. This would make it feasible to put AI compute infrastructure in space.

That won’t be straightforward, of course, but neither was developing reusable rockets. And due to the company’s captivating mission to make life multiplanetary, it also attracts the best engineering graduates (an underappreciated competitive edge).

What about valuation?

Clearly, there are many moving parts to this business and a lot of uncertainty. Hopefully we’ll get some firm guidance today about expectations for 2026.

This makes valuing SpaceX very tricky. As things stand, the stock is trading at about 39 times this year’s forecast sales. But earnings estimates for 2027 and beyond vary wildly from broker to broker. And we can basically forget about positive free cash flow until the 2030s.

Adding to the uncertainty is whether Tesla merges with SpaceX at some point. Musk has said that there are increasing crossovers between the two businesses (AI, solar technology, etc).

Even after its 50% nosedive, the stock is too risky for me today. I want more clarity on the AI side of the business.

Should you invest £5,000 in SpaceX right now?

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Ben McPoland has no position in any of the companies mentioned.