While everyone else is making 2026 World Cup predictions based on national pride, sports betting odds, group-stage overreactions, and pure vibes, Joachim Klement’s pick is getting extra attention because his model has been correct three tournaments in a row.
And Argentina’s win in 2022.
So, naturally, everyone wants to know who his model picked for 2026.
And the answer is…not France. Not Brazil. Not Argentina. Not Spain. It’s the Netherlands!! Klement’s model predicts that the Netherlands will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup by beating Portugal in the final.
And this is where people started side-eyeing him, because the Netherlands is definitely a curveball and not exactly the obvious fan-favorite pick. They are definitely a major football country, but they have famously never won the World Cup, despite reaching the final three separate times.
And of course, people online had a lot to say about the prediction:
Also not helping with the prophecy: The Netherlands opened their 2026 World Cup run with a 2–2 draw against Japan, which is not exactly screaming “future world champions.”
Klement’s model reportedly looks at factors including GDP per capita, “population size, the status of football in society, [and] the national team’s position in the world rankings.”
But the most hilarious part of this entire thing is why he made the model in the first place. Klement said he originally created it as “an exercise in showing the hubris of economists” who think they can forecast almost anything with data and a fancy model.
Basically, he was trying to prove that predicting something as chaotic as the World Cup is ridiculous and borderline impossible. Unfortunately for him, the model then immediately started being right. 😭
I’m sorry, but accidentally becoming the World Cup prophecy guy while actively trying to prove World Cup prophecy guys wrong is objectively very funny.
And to be fair, Klement does not claim to have the magic crystal ball. He has said he’s “just been lucky so far,” and that luck plays a huge role when two teams are close in strength.
Honestly, him pleading with the world to not treat him like a prophet kind of makes me want to treat him like the official World Cup prophet… 🤭
Nonetheless, the 2026 World Cup final is set for July 19, so we’ll soon find out whether Klement’s streak continues or whether this is the year the model finally gets humbled.
Until then, I need to know what everyone thinks: Are the Netherlands actually winning this whole thing, or has this model just been ridiculously lucky three times in a row? Tell us in the comments below!
