The locked capital needed for a MiCA spot license is relatively small, somewhere between 50,000 euros ($57,000) and 150,000 euros by class, according to Patrick Gruhn, founder and CEO of Perpetuals.com Ltd. (PDC).

What becomes costly is the license itself, which can be as high as 700,000 euros in year one and 250,000 euros a year after for a lean firm, or into the millions for a large exchange, Gruhn said via email. “Call it 12–24 months to the first authorized trade with maybe €100k lawyer fees,” he said.

As for the number of jobs that could be lost due to MiCA, no reliable estimate exists. However, many of the 80% of pre-MiCA platforms facing extinction are tiny shell entities, Gruhn said.

“That overstates the situation significantly,” Gruhn said. “And much of it is reallocation, since licensed firms have to hire compliance staff and the offshore ones don’t.”

Changing environment

Nevertheless, MiCA threatens to stifle crypto as an industry in some countries. The situation is particularly harsh in Poland, where domestic legislative delays and presidential vetoes have meant the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) has faced roadblocks in establishing a fully functional crypto application and licensing regime.

Mateusz Kara, CEO of Morphic Financial Group, which is headquartered in London and has deep roots and operations in Poland, said the MiCA deadline could “wipe out Polish crypto.”