Deaths have begun to outnumber births in England and Wales as the start of July marked a grim milestone dubbed ‘Death Day’, according to new analysis.
Official projections showed deaths would outpace births every year from 2026 and researchers said Britain entered a ‘new demographic era’ as this threshold was crossed yesterday.
The public will now attend more funerals than christenings as 450,000 more deaths than births are projected over the next decade due to a ‘collapse’ in the birthrate.
Earlier this year the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revised down estimates for the growth of the UK population in the coming decades due to declining birthrates and a fall in net migration.
New Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) analysis of official projections suggests the threshold at which deaths started to outnumber births in England and Wales was crossed on 1 July. This will now be the new normal.
Edward Davies, the think tank’s research director, described it as a ‘worrying milestone’ that reflects ‘decades of failure to adequately support family life’.
The fertility rate – the average number of children women are expected to have – has been falling steadily since 2012 and it hit the lowest level ever recorded last year at just 1.39.
This is well below the 2.1 children per woman required to maintain a stable population without immigration and a far cry from the concept of ‘2.4 children’ in a stereotypical British nuclear family.
The fertility rate has fallen to just 1.39 children per woman – well below the 2.1 children per woman required to maintain a stable population without immigration (stock image)
Falling birthrates have been blamed on couples delaying plans to have children due to the cost of housing and childcare, more women prioritising careers and couples opting to have smaller families.
The CSJ has warned that that the birthrate ‘collapse’ will cause government spending to soar, with public debt forecast to his 270 per cent of GDP in order to pay for Britain’s ageing population.
The think tank said that if Labour attempted to maintain today’s ratio of workers to pensioners, the state pension age would need to rise such that children aged 8 and under today would not retire until they are 75.
Mr Davies said: ‘For as long as family continues to be the F-word of politics, the government will not be in control of the seismic demographic shifts which are wreaking havoc on the public finances and depriving millions of their dreams of parenthood.’
He added: ‘We need to prioritise marriage, help young men step up to the plate, and make it easier for couples who want children to afford to have them.’
Deaths have outnumbered births in just a handful of years since the late 1890s – in 1976, during the pandemic in 2020, and again in 2023. However this is now projected to be the case every year after 2026.
Declining birth rates in recent years have been masked by record levels of immigration, which has seen the population grow rapidly despite births and deaths remaining roughly level.
The proportion of babies born in the UK to foreign parents has also increased during that period. Official figures show that four in ten babies born last year had at least one parent who was born outside the UK.
Meanwhile some areas such as the West Midlands and London have seen the number of births increase, while other places including the North East and South West have seen a decline in the number of births.
Overall, the population is expected to grow by about 1.7 million people by 2034 up to a total of 71 million, with this increase driven entirely by migration.
The population is projected to begin to decrease in the mid-2050s, sooner than previous estimates which suggested it would continue to grow until 2096.
These projections were revised downwards due to the birth rate and falling net migration – the difference between the number of people coming to the UK and those leaving – following a record high in 2023 dubbed the ‘Boriswave’.
