The White House countered the bankers’ concerns on Tuesday by posting economic data suggesting the worries are misguided.

Jaret Seiberg, a policy analyst at TD Cowen, set the odds for a failure in the opening vote at 60%. In that scenario, he said, “Democrats, including those who are crypto friendly, decide the GOP changes are insufficient. It also likely means several Republicans vote no over stablecoin yield or law enforcement concerns.”

Keeping the process going

Meanwhile, the crypto industry is asking that lawmakers at least keep the process alive with an opening yes vote that allows them to continue talking.

“A yes vote is critical and keeps the process moving,” the leading crypto lobbying groups said in a joint statement on Tuesday. “Doing so will ensure that senators have opportunities to debate and move this much-needed legislation to the Senate floor.”

If the vote goes forward as planned on Tuesday and fails, that’s likely the end of the Clarity Act saga in this congressional session. And the odds remain high that Democrats could retake the House of Representatives majority in the November elections, meaning any future crypto legislative efforts could be under the agenda-setting authorities of Democratic committee chairs.

In the absence of a viable crypto bill, Democrats are likely to double down on their crypto corruption accusations about President Donald Trump and his administration. And the industry’s political action committees will have to determine whether some of the industry’s Democratic friends should then become political opponents.