by Irene Sans, Yale Climate Connections
August 10, 2026

It is August and as is typical, as we get closer to the peak of hurricane season, we are starting to notice more tropical waves. In the classic behavior we often see in August, two Cabo Verde waves – so named because they often pass near the Cabo Verde Islands – have been exiting Africa and moving west. They both have a long road and an uncertain future ahead.

As of 8 a.m. EDT Monday, August 10, the National Hurricane Center hadn’t given either wave status as an “Invest,” so they were not yet worthy of having the specialized hurricane models run for them. The first wave, located between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles, was being given a low chance (10%) of development during the next seven days. The wave was moving quickly westward and could gradually develop as it gets closer to the Caribbean. However, as it approaches the Caribbean, it will also enter an area with strong wind shear, which should prevent further development.

The second tropical wave, located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, has a medium chance (60%) of tropical development over the next seven days. Satellite imagery does show that a low-pressure system has developed. It is expected to move west to west-northwest, but just north of the first tropical wave mentioned above. This system has a higher chance of developing into a tropical system due to the moisture that will be left behind by the first tropical wave in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. It is likely to become a tropical depression toward the end of this week as it moves over the central tropical Atlantic.

This tropical wave is more than 1,200 miles away from the central Caribbean, and we know that wind shear over the central Caribbean continues to be very strong. In fact, conditions become much less favorable as the system approaches areas west of 55 degrees longitude. Regardless, neither of these systems is currently a worry for the Caribbean or the United States. We have plenty of time to watch them, and they have plenty of obstacles along the way that could prevent further development and strengthening.

Another area that is likely to remain a “fish storm” – a system only of concern to maritime interests – is a trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles north and west of Bermuda. This trough is producing thunderstorms, and it will continue to move quickly east into the central Atlantic. It currently has a very low chance of developing, about 10%, and it appears even those chances will dwindle as it is forecast to encounter cooler waters around the middle of the week.

Tropical wave season

As we move toward the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season – specifically the months of August and September – we tend to have, on average, a wider area to monitor. We no longer just monitor areas closer to the U.S. and the Caribbean – we also see more robust tropical waves exiting Africa. On average, a tropical wave moves west at about 15 mph. At that speed, a tropical wave can take more than two weeks to reach the Americas as it travels thousands of miles between continents.

If we could take out the factors that can cause a system to intensify or weaken and simply track the movement of a tropical wave from east to west, on average it would take anywhere from 12 to 14 days for a tropical system to reach the U.S. coast while maintaining an average speed of 15 mph, according to Dr. Robert Hart at Florida State University.

When we start watching a system near the Lesser Antilles, that time is cut roughly in half. It would take such a system approximately five to six days to reach the continental United States. “Homegrown” systems can obviously take even less time to arrive: A system that develops in the Gulf of Mexico can take as little as one to three days to reach the continental U.S. or the eastern Mexican coast.

When factors such as a tropical system’s intensity are considered, the probabilities differ. The probability of a hurricane that has already formed over the tropical Atlantic – let’s say around the Cabo Verde Islands – striking the continental United States is less than 10%. Once a tropical system has maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph and becomes a hurricane, it tends to curve and remain over water.

When a tropical system enters the Caribbean and becomes a hurricane, it has a 30% to 40% chance of striking the Lower 48 states. Depending on its location, the chances of affecting the Caribbean can also remain medium to high.

Although tropical waves are beneficial because they bring plenty of moisture from Africa and pick up even more moisture on their way to the Caribbean – which, by the way, is one reason the Caribbean is not a desert – they can be incredibly long-lived systems to monitor. For meteorologists, it can often feel like we are running a marathon.

Even as we watch tropical waves develop and move closer to the Americas, they provide us with plenty of time to prepare. So although the next two months could feel incredibly long, it can also become confusing when we are monitoring several different waves at the same time. And, of course, development closer to home is also fair game. Any system that develops in the Gulf or the Caribbean will give us less time to prepare.

Sea surface temperatures

Currently, the departure of sea surface temperature from average is greatest around Cuba and the Bahamas. Water temperatures are anywhere from 87.8°F to 92.4°F (31°C to 33°C), which is about 1.8°F to 3.6°F (1°C to 2°C) above average.

The western Gulf of Mexico also continues to run about 0.9°F to 1.5°F (0.5°C to 1°C) above average, with temperatures ranging from 87.8°F to 89.6°F (31°C to 32°C). Waters around the southern half of Florida along both coasts are also running around 87.8°F (31°C), with sea surface temperatures about 1.8°F (1°C) above average.

Embedded across the Atlantic are several plumes of Saharan dust that continue to engulf parts of the Caribbean, while a deeper plume exiting Africa is staying north of the two tropical waves we are monitoring. Saharan dust also tends to put a big dent in the chances of tropical storm formation. Saharan air is very dry and tends to choke tropical systems by introducing dry air into them.

Wind shear

As we have mentioned throughout the start of this hurricane season, wind shear has been a main player in keeping hurricane season quiet so far across the Caribbean. Conditions remain very unfavorable because of strong wind shear across the central Atlantic and through the northern portion of the Lesser Antilles, where it ranges between 25 and 50 knots. This swath of very strong wind shear puts up a significant wall for any tropical system attempting to move through it.

Although wind shear is between five and 15 knots across the western Caribbean and through the Gulf of Mexico, there are virtually no tropical waves that could survive the strong wind shear across the central Caribbean right now. The forecast calls for wind shear across the central Caribbean to remain in place or increase a little more in the coming days.

Northeast Pacific picking up: Invest 93C a potential threat to Hawaii

The approach of peak season is also evident in the Northeast Pacific. As of Monday morning, the NHC was monitoring three systems in this region, all expected to track west-northwest between Mexico and Hawaii. The area of greatest concern was a disturbance named Invest 93C, which was almost stationary on Monday morning about 1,100 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Embedded in a very moist atmosphere, with midlevel relative humidity close to 80%, 93C will be traversing surface water close to 30 degrees Celsius (86°F), which is about 1°C above average for this time of year. Wind shear around 93C is predicted to be light to moderate over the next several days. Given these mostly favorable conditions, NHC gave this disturbance a 50% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression by Wednesday and a 90% chance by next Monday, August 17. Multiple long-range forecast models bring Invest 93C to tropical-storm or even hurricane strength late this week, though such models would be more reliable for intensity after 93C develops a more distinct center. Multiple models show 93C passing close to the Hawaiian Islands during the Friday-Sunday time period.

The other two disturbances of interest in the Northeast Pacific are less likely to develop and also less likely to move toward Hawaii. And although the Northwest Pacific is bubbling with activity – including Tropical Storms Chan-hom and Peilou and a new tropical depression – none of these pose any immediate threat to land.

Long-lived Typhoon Dolphin, which peaked as a Category 5 equivalent well out at sea, finally made landfall as a Category 1 storm near Wenzhou, China, on Sunday night local time, August 9, after a journey of nearly two weeks as a named system, including a landfall on Kume Island, Japan. More than 250,000 people in Japan and more than a million in China were urged to evacuate ahead of Dolphin.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters contributed to this post.

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