It has been a phenomenal few years for Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR) whose shares sold for pennies in 2022 but now sell for close to £13.

Over five years, the share price has increased by 803%.

That is around 17 times the 46% increase seen in the wider FTSE 100 index over that period.

Set against that, an increase of 93% might not seem impossible. That is what it would take from here for Rolls-Royce shares to hit £25.

So, could it happen?

Taking the long-term approach

I think it may.

As a long-term investor, I am happy to wait for years or even decades for an investment thesis to prove itself. That does not mean I always do that in practice, as things can change over time, but at least in principle I buy shares hoping to own them for the long term.

As Warren Buffett said: ”If you aren’t thinking about owning a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes”.

Say someone takes a decade-long approach. In that case, Rolls-Royce shares growing by 93% does not seem too far-fetched. After all, the company’s financial performance lately has been strong and it continues to aim for ambitious goals.

It is benefiting from a positive demand environment not only for civil aviation but also defence and power systems. Civil aviation tends to be cyclical, but I expect customer demand in both defence and power systems to stay robust in coming years.

What might go wrong?

In the short term though, I am more circumspect.

Rolls-Royce shares are already 18% below their 12-month high (which was also an all-time high), suggesting investors may have cooled somewhat on it.

For starters, the demand picture for civil aviation now is looking less promising than a year ago.

To date that has not negatively impacted Rolls’ business, but higher jet fuel prices feeding through to higher ticket prices (something BA owner International Consolidated Airlines Group expects next year) could hurt passenger demand. That may translate to airlines ordering fewer new plane engines.

Another concern is valuation.

Rolls-Royce shares sell for 36 times earnings. That is a pretty punchy valuation. To maintain it, I think Rolls needs to keep delivering without a single nasty surprise. It has managed to do that over recent years.

I don’t see a short-term catalyst

Despite those concerns, there is a lot to like about the investment case for Rolls-Royce. But to grow 93%, even over a timespan of many years, I think there may need to be a specific catalyst (or multiple catalysts).

Those could include ongoing delivery against demanding financial targets.

Another possible catalyst could be a stepchange in customer demand in one of the manufacturer’s business areas – something like a boom in modular nuclear reactors or a new aircraft engine type being successfully marketed.

In the short term I do not expect to see that happen so would be surprised if the share price hits £25.

Over the long term, I do see it as possible – but do not think the current share price properly reflects the risks involved, such as the potential for a downturn in civil aviation.

So, instead of buying Rolls-Royce shares, I am looking elsewhere in the market.

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Christopher Ruane does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.