Arriving in Liverpool on Saturday for his first Labour conference as leader, Andy Burnham cut a more confident and optimistic figure than Keir Starmer.

Gone was the robotic awkwardness of his technocratic predecessor, replaced with a man who is Labour to his bones, relieved to be back from his uncomfortable outing on the world stage with Donald Trump and ready to decompress with adoring activists.

He walked up for a photoshoot alongside his wife, Marie-France van Heel, relaxed in his suede bomber jacket, T-shirt, jeans and £110 Adidas trainers – looking at ease as he joked about how he loves ‘coming to Liverpool on a Saturday – normally to support the Blues…’

‘But we’re all supporting the Reds today, aren’t we?’ came the undercooked punchline, prompting cheers from the party faithful.

But beneath the dad-like clothes and calm demeanour lies a man who knows he is piloting a deeply divided party, packed with MPs already thinking about his potential failure in No 10, who still refuse to tackle the myriad crises facing Britain, and whose minds are dominated by fears about a potential snap general election.

Because whatever Burnham’s differences with Sir Keir, both leaders have one thing in common: They are carrying a Ming vase across a slippery path, where one stumble could spell disaster.

Burnham’s insistence on Friday that he’s not going to hold a snap election may have prompted sighs of relief from his backbenches, stuffed with MPs in highly marginal seats, but government insiders insisted on Saturday that the plot to go to the country remains full steam ahead.

The crucial evidence they pointed to was the upcoming ‘ten-year plan’, promised by Burnham on the steps of No 10. He said it would ‘lay out a path from where we are now to where I believe we all want Britain to be’.

Arriving in Liverpool on Saturday for his first Labour conference as leader, Andy Burnham cut a more confident and optimistic figure than Keir Starmer, writes Christian Calgie

However, Labour sources have revealed that the plan is ‘nothing but a Trojan horse for an early election. November is going to be when we will see his manifesto’. That tallies with Kemi Badenoch’s prediction; last week she put her money on a December poll as she branded Burnham a ‘gambler’.

Senior Labour sources also expect No 10 to start blaming the previous manifesto red lines for being unable to make progress on key promises, such as reducing the cost of living, and that November’s ‘ten-year plan’ will go far beyond Sir Keir’s promises to voters – including on Brexit – forcing Burnham to ask for a fresh mandate.

Louise Haigh, the firebrand Deputy Prime Minister-in-all-but-name, is said to already be playing the role of the PM’s general election ‘campaign manager’, while Lord Alli – he of the infamous ‘glasses for passes’ cronyism row under Sir Keir – is convening 20 donors to fund Labour’s war chest.

No one in Labour thinks this week’s conference will be anything other than an easy ride for Burnham. Despite Saturday’s Cabinet bust-up over migration, and a painful intervention from ex-minister Peter Kyle on economic growth, the PM’s arch critics know that Liverpool is not the forum to try upstaging him.

It doesn’t mean Burnham will emerge unscathed, however. There are plenty of internal critics who warn that the unions are turning up with begging bowls, forcing unhelpful votes that commit the Labour Party to yet more unfunded spending pledges.

In years gone by, Labour leaders tried to negotiate their union paymasters away from such theatrics, but multiple sources said Burnham had failed to do so this year.

One delegate told The Mail on Sunday: ‘I think it’s going to be spend, spend, spend. Delegates are going to think that because there’s a new leader we can spend loads of money we don’t have.’

Another top party official said: ‘Some of the smaller unions are demanding things, and No 10 aren’t brave enough to say “no”. Burnham’s not got the balls or the skill to face down the unions.’

Burnham’s real problems are brewing back in Westminster, where rival factions are once again building their own power bases ahead of the Budget. 

Darren Jones, Sir Keir’s right-hand man who was ousted by Burnham and left smarting on the backbenches, has already formed a new grouping of disgruntled Starmerites and fiscal hawks.

A top insider revealed that its numbers are already around 100-strong, including ministers.

Rachel Reeves is among those to have joined the rebels, marking her return to the Westminster fray, with one Whips Office source branding her still ‘sore’ from her sacking as Chancellor.

While Jones insists his legion of disgruntled MPs is merely about ensuring the party remains electable ahead of the next election, whenever it may be, one member let the cat out of the bag when telling this paper that it is, in fact, a back-up vehicle ‘for when it all goes wrong for Burnham, [so we] have a group ready to pounce’.

Anticipating criticism from supporters of Burnham, they pointedly compared it to Haigh’s accidental confession in July that she and others had been plotting his ascension to the top job ‘for at least the last year’.

Downing Street is concerned, with one party manager warning it is ‘designed to undermine [us]’.

There are plenty who view Jones’s manoeuvres with loathing, of course, articulated by one government source who said the Bristol North West MP was ‘clearly not in a good place at the moment’.

Talk about an early election will persist, not because Burnham desires one, but because so many at the heart of his operation believe they will be backed into a corner over the coming months.

The Budget may well force the Government to sell some uncomfortable choices, but it is expected to be a low-key event, with plenty of devolution pledges to disguise the lack of radical change from the previous administration’s agenda.

What Downing Street will be more worried about is next year’s spending review, which will at long last reveal just how broke the country is, and force Labour MPs to finally commit to the welfare cuts they so detest.

Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves ‘backloaded’ a lot of the spending cuts, meaning most of the difficult decisions would come towards the end of his expected five-year term.

One MP said Labour’s Lefty MPs are ‘lying in wait’ if Burnham slashes departmental spending, adding that welfare cuts will once again ‘trigger a Left-wing revolt’.

The new PM may survive Liverpool, but he’s set for a brutal reality check back in Westminster.