Accusations of insider trading are swirling around a mystery online gambler who made huge winning bets on the timing of US and Israeli military action against Iran.
A Polymarket account under the name @Magamyman has made more than $637,000 in the past 30 days on a string of bets on political and military matters, the vast majority tied directly to strikes on Iran.
The single biggest play came from correctly betting that the US would strike Iran by Saturday, February 28. When the joint US-Israeli attacks unfolded, the account landed $195,198.47 in profit.
Another $165,177.74 came from a similar bet predicting a US strike by March 31, while a series of smaller Iran-linked contracts added tens of thousands more.
The scale and timing of the wins quickly triggered claims on social media that the trader may have had access to information from within the military or political circles. There is no evidence that this is the case.
Users on X called for more transparency and urged Polymarket, which resumed operations in the US earlier this year, to ban ‘any betting that would affect national security.’
Some argued that there ‘needs to be oversight’ on online betting sites, with others highlighting how @Magamyman’s success ‘raises serious concerns about insider trading and the need for transparency in prediction markets.’
Others, however, rushed to the Polymarket user’s defense, claiming it was clear the US would soon attack Iran, with one user admitting they too gambled on the attack on Friday after the US ambassador in Israel ordered evacuations.
Skeptics have expressed fury at an online gambler who got lucky and earned nearly half a million dollars betting on when the US would strike Iran
People watch from a rooftop as a plume of smoke rises after a strike in Tehran, Iran on Sunday
A satellite image shows black smoke rising and heavy damage at Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound following strikes in Tehran on Saturday
Although there is no publicly available information to support the allegations of insider trading, social media users have branded @Magamyman’s win as ‘utterly unconscionable.’
‘So basically they either have insider info of the luckiest timing in betting history,’ one X user wrote of @Magamyman’s bet. ‘Either way, that’s the kind of trade that makes you wonder what they knew and when they knew it.’
‘This is equivalent to insider trading and should be illegal,’ wrote another.
One added: ‘There absolutely needs to be more transparency, especially when the average person is losing a ton of money on these platforms and even going into debt.’
But others noted that betting websites are filled with speculation about political events and plenty of people have lost money on the exact same topic.
‘There were the same number of bets against. That’s how these platforms work,’ one tweeted.
‘That’s the whole point,’ added another. ‘By betting on the outcome insiders change the odds and this informs everyone what’s more likely to happen. It’s a platform for turning insider knowledge into public knowledge.’
Others urged betting websites to be more transparent with account data and questioned whether platforms like Polymarket have safeguards in place to prevent insider trading.
The Daily Mail has approached Polymarket for comment.
It remains unclear whether Polymarket, the world’s largest online prediction market, will pay out the winnings earned from bets on the US striking Iran.
Furious X users have called for more transparency and urged Polymarket, which just resumed operations in the US earlier this year, to ban political betting
In January, Polymarket refused to pay out bets that the United States would ‘invade’ Venezuela after the US military captured President Nicolás Maduro and first lady Cilia Flores.
Polymarket ruled the operation in Venezuela did not meet its definition of an invasion, triggering outrage from users who had wagered that Washington would deploy troops into the oil-rich nation.
The disputed market asked whether the US would ‘invade Venezuela’ by specific dates. When US special forces captured the Venezuelan ruling couple, many users believed the bet had been resolved.
But Polymarket determined that the mission which resulted in the seizure of Maduro and his wife was a ‘snatch-and-extract’ operation and did not on its own qualify as an invasion.
The platform defined an invasion as ‘US military operations intended to establish control.’
Polymarket added that President Donald Trump’s statement that the United States would ‘run’ Venezuela during negotiations also did not meet the threshold for an invasion.
This time, however, bets specifically said the US would ‘strike’ Iran, which matches the reality of what happened on Saturday.
Others, however, rushed to the Polymarket user’s defense, claiming it was clear the US would soon attack Iran, with one user admitting they too bet on the attack on Friday after the US ambassador in Israel ordered evacuations
The joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran starting Saturday carried the potential for a wider war, and the fallout could have major repercussions for the world economy.
In announcing Saturday’s attack, President Donald Trump urged Iranians to seize the moment and ‘take over.’
The massive US and Israeli attack killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered retaliatory strikes on multiple countries in the region and is reverberating around the world.
Related violence expanded Sunday to a growing number of places. An enormous Israeli strike targeted Tehran.
Iran fired drones and missiles at Israel and US military installations around the Gulf, and also at the global business hub of Dubai.
At least nine people were killed in clashes after angry protesters stormed the US consulate in Pakistan.
Iran has formed a council to govern the country until a new supreme leader is chosen. An Iranian diplomat told an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council that hundreds of civilians were killed and wounded in the strikes.
The strikes came two days after the latest US-Iran talks as Trump pressured Tehran for a deal to constrain its nuclear program.
Iran’s theocracy has also struggled with growing dissent following nationwide protests that began over the economy but turned into anti-government ones.
Rescue forces work among debris following an Iranian rocket attack that hit Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem, Israel on Sunday
A protester sets fire near a gate leading to the U.S. Consulate during a violent protest against the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran, in Lahore, Pakistan on Sunday
People take cover in an underground train station in Haifa, Israel on Sunday as Iran continued launching retaliation attacks against Israel and across the Gulf
Israel said it had worked with the US for months to plan the attacks. The US military said targets in Iran included Revolutionary Guard command facilities, air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields.
One of the first strikes hit near the offices of the 86-year-old Khamenei, who had ruled since 1989 and held ultimate power. Iranian state television and state-run IRNA news agency reported Khamenei’s death without details.
Israel said it also killed 40 top Iranian military officials, including the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the defense minister.
The US and Israel also struck Iran last June during earlier nuclear talks, greatly weakening Iran’s air defenses, military leadership and nuclear program.
The Trump administration has asserted that Iran had been rebuilding its nuclear program, which Tehran has insisted is for peaceful purposes.
Iran launched missiles and drones targeting Israel and strikes targeting US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.
‘You have crossed our red line and must pay the price,’ Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said in a televised address Sunday.
The US military reported no American casualties and minimal damage at US bases despite ‘hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks.’
Israel’s military said Iran fired ‘dozens’ of missiles at Israel, with many intercepted. Emergency responder Magen David Adom said a woman in the Tel Aviv area died after being wounded in an Iranian missile attack.
Smoke billows from an oil tanker under U.S. sanctions, that was hit off Oman’s Musandam peninsula on Sunday, March 1, 2026
Emergency personnel work at the site of an Iranian strike, after Iran launched missile barrages following attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Saturday, in Beit Shemesh, Israel on Sunday
Air defense fire thudded over Dubai, the United Arab Emirates’ commercial capital, which has long drawn business and expatriates by billing itself as a safe haven in a volatile region.
Shrapnel from Iranian attacks on the UAE capital of Abu Dhabi killed two people, state media said.
Attacks also extended into Oman – Iran’s longtime interlocutor with the West.
Saudi Arabia said Iran had targeted its capital and eastern region in an attack that was repelled. Bahrain said a missile attack targeted the US Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters, and three buildings were damaged in the capital, Manama, and Muharraq city.
Kuwait’s civil aviation authority said a drone targeted the main international airport, injuring several employees.
Explosions could be heard in Qatar. Jordan said it ‘dealt with’ 49 drones and ballistic missiles.
Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have vowed to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping routes and on Israel, according to two senior Houthi officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because there was no official announcement from leadership.
The strikes elicited mixed global reactions and could rattle markets, particularly if Iran makes the Strait of Hormuz unsafe for commercial traffic.
Demonstrators step on posters of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump during a protest against Israel and the U.S. strikes on Iran, following the killing of late Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, outside the U.S. embassy in Ankara, Turkey, March 1, 2026
A demonstrator carries a picture of late Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a protest against Israel and the U.S. strikes on Iran, following the killing of Khamenei, outside the U.S. embassy in Ankara, Turkey
A man burns the U.S. and Israeli flags during a protest against Israel and the U.S. strikes on Iran, following the killing of Ali Khamenei, in Sanaa, Yemen on March 1, 2026
A third of worldwide oil exports transported by sea passed through the strait in 2025.
The fighting has also disrupted air travel in the region, with global repercussions.
Hundreds of thousands of travelers were left stranded or diverted to other airports after Israel, Qatar, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain closed their airspace.
There was no flight activity over the United Arab Emirates, flight tracking website FlightRadar24 said.
