National Grid (LSE:NG) shares sit roughly 18% below their all‑time high of 1,428p, touched on 1 March. That drop has caught the eye of income‑focused investors who have long treated the utility as a steady, bond‑like holding.

Much of the pressure looks tied to a fresh UK grid‑investment policy debate, with think‑tanks and commentators questioning whether the scale of planned network spending is justified.

Add in broader utility sentiment and interest rate worries, and it’s no surprise the stock’s struggled. But behind the noise, National Grid is pushing ahead with a massive capital programme and a leaner operating model.

So what’s really going on, and does this change the long‑term income case?

A £70bn plan, a leaner grid, and new risks

National Grid’s in the middle of a £70bn investment programme through to 2031, aimed at upgrading and expanding electricity and gas networks in the UK and US to support decarbonisation, reliability and new demand from electrification and data centres.

To help deliver this, the company announced a simplified operating model in early August, cutting its Group Executive Committee from 13 to eight members and creating new regional president roles for the UK and US.

The idea is sharper accountability and faster decision‑making as capex ramps up. And to its credit, things definitely seem to be taking shape.

Electrification specialist Linxon has been appointed to expand a UK substation in response to rising regional power demand, and global energy tech company GE Vernova was chosen to supply a 400 kV substation to support network upgrades. On the execution side, it has partnered with Method Grid to create a digital playbook for capital project delivery, standardising processes across its strategic infrastructure programme.

Yet the defensive narrative has taken a knock after a cyberattack on a minor UK power plant, which some media reports attributed to Iranian hackers. Naturally, that’s ramped up focus on grid cybersecurity. So if cyber risk is rising, can this once-loved utility still be treated as a low‑volatility income stock?

Analysts turn cautious

Broker coverage has turned broadly cautious. Average price targets cluster around 1,346p, but there’s a wide range: UBS sits at 1,150p, while Jefferies recently cut its target to 1,300p.

Concerns centre on execution of the £70bn plan, regulatory outcomes in the UK, and whether allowed returns will be enough to justify the risk.

For investors, this means the usual ‘buy and forget’ utility story now comes with more moving parts, including delivery timelines, cost overruns, and policy shifts possibly influencing returns.

Is the income story still intact?

So where does this leave National Grid as an investment? The company still offers regulated, predictable cash flows and a dividend profile tied to its growing asset base, but the path is less smooth than in the past.

The £70bn plan could pay off over the next five to 10 years if delivery stays on track and regulators remain supportive.

For investors eyeing the stock, the key question is whether the current price drop offers real value – or if the 1,428p high was over inflated? With fresh execution and policy risk in the mix, is it still the reliable income stock it once was?

From my perspective, I don’t see fundamental change – if anything, I see progress. Yes, change always brings risk, but as they say, ‘no risk, no reward’. So I’m going to keep holding my shares, and trust the UK’s largest utility to stay the course.

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Mark Hartley owns shares in National Grid.