There’s rarely a dull moment with the SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) share price. Since Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company came to market in mid-June, it has been as high as $225 and as low as $104.

Where it will go next is anybody’s guess, and looking at some of the price forecasts, guess is the operative word. One has an $800 target on SpaceX, while another has gone with $75. That’s a galaxy-sized spread in the world of broker targets!

One prominent research firm has pegged SpaceX’s fair-value estimate at $780bn, or $63 per share, less than half what it went public at. If it converged with that, the share price would lose over 50% of its value.

As somebody who is actively looking to invest in SpaceX, I turned to leading AI app ChatGPT, hoping for some clarity. I simply asked: “Will the SpaceX share price crash 50%?”

Here’s what it said…

Artificial confidence

ChatGPT reckons a 50% crash is “plausible”, given the lofty valuation at the IPO. To be fair, the record $1.77trn market valuation did originally put me off, as I felt it was overhyped and that most (if not all) of the firm’s growth was already priced in.

The bot warned there are still further insider-share unlocks coming, with early SpaceX backers expected to cash in to buy houses, yachts, and planes. Alright for some. So this could create some downwards selling pressure on the share price.

ChatGPT said a 50% crash wasn’t its base case, though strangely it didn’t give me one. I could have asked and it would probably have conjured up a number, but what I’ve found previously is that any pushback on my part then results in a wildly different number.

In other words, for all its confident bluster, the bot can sometimes capitulate and change its ‘mind’. Turns out, ChatGPT often has artificial confidence as well as intelligence.

A compelling opportunity

While not really offering much depth in analysis — every output requires pricey GPU compute, memory, and electricity — the bot did say something interesting:

“If the underlying Starlink and launch businesses keep growing while the valuation gets smashed, that’s when SpaceX could potentially become a genuinely compelling growth-stock opportunity“.

I agree with this, as Starlink has captured less than 10% of the global aviation market (in-flight connectivity for commercial and private aircraft). SpaceX also has big plans to provide connectivity directly to cell phones, which is another huge growth opportunity.

However, the most exciting potential for me long term is moving gigawatt-scale AI computing into orbit. SpaceX, which is collaborating with Nvidia on space-based compute, plans to deploy up to 1m AI satellites that would transmit data to and from Earth via the Starlink network.

Naturally, some are pooh-poohing these plans today, but these same people were probably the ones dismissing reusable rockets a decade ago. Or self-driving cars five years ago.

The key to success though is Starship, the world’s largest rocket, which is due its next test launch soon. A major setback in its path to reusability is a key risk, as is the high valuation at $134.

But growth investors prepared for a wild ride still might want to take a closer look. I’m planning to add SpaceX to my portfolio, ideally before 2027.

Should you invest £5,000 in SpaceX right now?

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Ben McPoland owns shares in Nvidia.