BP (LSE:BP.) shares have been one of the FTSE 100‘s big winners over the past year. As oil supplies have come under pressure, fossil fuel producers have enjoyed a profits bonanza. BP’s own profits more than doubled in Q2 from the same quarter last year.

Over the last year, BP’s share price has blossomed roughly 24.5%. It means someone who invested £9,999 in the Footsie firm a year ago would have turned that into £12,445. With dividends included, their total return would come in at £13,126.

With no clear end to the Iran war in sight, investors should be braced for further significant gains. But how high might BP shares go?

It’s looking good!

Looking at broker forecasts is a good starting-off point. These offer a range of opinions from City professionals with in-depth knowledge of oil stocks and energy markets.

Currently 19 analysts have ratings on BP shares. It’s a good number, providing a broad spectrum of views that give the overall forecast added depth.

So let’s cut to the chase. Where do they think BP’s share price is heading?

One enthusiastic broker thinks it will pick up steam and rise as much as 30% over the next year to 686.1p. However, the average share price forecast is 587.2p, representing a more modest 11.3% year-on-year rise.

That’s also lower than the 24.5% gain BP shares have delivered over the past 12 months.

Yet that 11%+ predicted return would still turn £9,999 today into an impressive £11,128 by 12 August next year. With predicted dividends included, too, shareholders could enjoy a robust total return of £11,791.

Time to pile in?

But I’m not going to go piling into BP just yet.

The reason? While analysts believe BP shares will keep soaring, they’re split over whether the FTSE 100 company’s shares are a Buy.

Of those 19 analysts:

• Nine have a Buy recommendation.
• The same number consider it a Hold.
• One has a Sell recommendation.

I’m not surprised the City is divided, either…

War talk

Oil prices are rising again as crude inventories begin to dwindle. Just today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a market deficit of 1.8m barrels a day in Q3, more than double its prior forecast.

It also warned that:

Although the market is projected to return to surplus towards the end of this year, risks remain substantial and the urgency of reopening the [Strait of Hormuz] has increased, as previously available inventory buffers are rapidly depleting.

Developments in the Middle East will remain the main driver of BP’s share price. The problem for us is that events are almost impossible to predict, and with them the outlook for oil prices. That’s not all, as the Iran war is also hitting global growth and with it energy demand, which investors also need to weigh up when considering the direction of BP shares.

Also on Wednesday, oil cartel OPEC reduced its estimates for oil demand. It’s the fourth such reduction in as many months.

Here’s what I’m doing

For me, there’s too much risk around BP shares today, and especially following their impressive recent price gains. However, I think its attractive dividend yield may make the company worth considering from income-focused investors.

Should you invest £5,000 in Bp P.l.c. right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Bp P.l.c. made the list?

Royston Wild does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.