There have been very few polls of voting intentions in the Makerfield by-election – such surveys are difficult and expensive to conduct – but the few which have been published have all pointed to the same trend: if Restore did not exist, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would have a much stronger chance of winning on Thursday.

A poll this weekend by More in Common and the UCL Policy Lab puts Andy Burnham on 45 per cent, with Reform’s Robert Kenyon on 40 per cent and Restore on 8 per cent. It means that if Restore’s voters switched to Reform, Mr Burnham could be beaten. 

As Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, says: ‘Andy Burnham is on track for a Makerfield win — thanks to Restore Britain.’

In other words, supporters of the hard-Right party are potentially paving the way for a radical Left-wing government, given that Mr Burnham has said he would challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the top job if he wins.

The poll of 515 adults in Makerfield is the third of the campaign to show Restore having a salient impact on the campaign, with more than one in ten voters yet to decide how to vote.

If Restore Britain voters switched to Reform, Andy Burnham (pictured on June 13, 2026) could be beaten in the Makerfield by-election

Nigel Farage pictured with his Makerfield by-election candidate Robert Kenyon in the constituency on June 10

Rupert Lowe’s (pictured on June 13, 2026) party, Restore Britain, could cost Reform the Makerfield by-election victory on June 18

No other party is likely to keep its deposit. The Green Party is on 3 per cent, the Conservatives are on 2 per cent and the Liberal Democrats are polling at 1 per cent.

Mr Tryl says: ‘Andy Burnham appears to have the advantage entering the final week of the Makerfield by-election. 

‘But with Reform only five points behind and more than one in ten voters still undecided, the last few days could prove pivotal.’

More in Common, a member of the British Polling Council, polled the Makerfield sample by telephone and online between May 28 and June 12.