The BP (LSE:BP.) share price is picking up steam again as oil prices accelerate once more. The FTSE 100 oil stock’s up 9.9% over the past month, taking gains since the start of 2026 to 29.1%.

You’ll probably know energy prices are buoyant as the Iran war has choked supplies. BP’s profits more than doubled between January and June, to $5.7bn, from the same period in 2025. This was a four-year high, and investors are expecting more bumper results as the conflict ramps up.

Yet analysts aren’t united when it comes to predicting BP’s share price outlook.

What do they say?

Today, there are 19 brokers with ratings on the FTSE-listed oil producer. This provides a wide range of opinions that give price ratings more credibility. The average 12-month target for BP shares is 635.1p. This suggests they’ll rise another 12.7% from today’s level of 563.5p.

That said, there are some stark differences between estimates, as you may expect with a share as extensively covered as this. One analyst is forecasting BP’s share price to be at 726.3p a year from now, up 28.9% from present levels. At the other end of the scale, another broker’s expecting the oil giant to fall 9.7% in value, to 508.8p.

Brokers’ views

However, the overwhelming view among City brokers is that BP shares will continue appreciating. This is reflected in the 19 individual ratings, where:

• Twelve rate the oil producer a Buy.
• One considers BP shares a Sell.
• Seven rate the FTSE company a Hold.

But here’s the thing: as we’ve seen, the near-term outlook for BP’s share price is closely linked to the Middle East crisis. And predicting events a few weeks ahead — let alone 12 months from now — is outside most analysts’ comfort zone.

What next?

Energy prices have leapt in recent days after US President Donald Trump rejected a fresh peace plan with Iran. Disruption to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz is continuing, a route through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas.

With inflation soaring, and Trump facing crunch-time in mid-term elections in November, the incentive to reach a peace deal is clear. But there have been several ‘near misses’ since the war began seven months ago. The complex geopolitical landscape makes predicting the timing of a ceasefire almost impossible to guess.

And this creates too much uncertainty for me. It’s not out of the question that BP’s share price could topple if the conflict ends following this year’s rally.

Are BP shares a Buy?

On the other hand, BP’s shares aren’t excessively expensive, and this could limit the scale of any price reversal. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits at an undemanding 7.5 times for 2026. Yet throw in the other uncertainties the company faces, and I believe the risks are too high, even at this valuation.

Scaling back its renewable energy ambitions leaves BP’s long-term profits more vulnerable to the green energy transition. There are also concerns over the scale at which the firm is selling off oil and gas projects and what this means for future profits.

As Hargreaves Lansdown analysts put it: “Cut too deep, and the balance between simplification and underinvestment could quickly become harder to strike“.

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Royston Wild does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.