Have you missed out on the surging Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR) share price in recent years? Some investors have made a mint owning Rolls-Royce shares. But many others have missed out as the aeronautical engineer has gone from strength to strength.
This is a long-term story, though, not just a short surge in the price.
Even a year ago, Rolls-Royce shares had already been on the up for years, but someone who invested then could still be sitting pretty today.
Solid one-year performance
When I say that the share price had been on the up for years, the figures show what I mean.
Over the past five years, Rolls-Royce shares have moved up in price by 1,277%.
Over the past 12 months, while the wider FTSE 100 is up by an already impressive 19%, Rolls-Royce shares have done over twice as well.
A gain of 41% means that £3,000 invested 12 months back would now have a value of £4,230.
Don’t forget the dividends!
On top of that gain in value, there are dividends to consider.
At first blush, Rolls’ current dividend yield of 0.7% may not seem exciting. On £3,000, that would amount to around £21 per year.
Remember, though, that someone who invested a year ago would now be earning a higher yield because of the lower price of Rolls-Royce shares back then. Still, at around £30 per year the passive income would be modest.
However, Rolls-Royce has sizeable cash generation ambitions that could help underpin future dividend growth.
That is far from guaranteed though and, indeed, the final dividend announced earlier this year was actually lower than last year’s.
More promisingly, the interim dividend announced last month was a third higher than the equivalent payment last year.
There could be more still to come
The soaring Rolls-Royce share price has not come about by accident.
It reflects the business’s sharper strategic focus than a few years ago, strong customer demand in all three of its key markets (civil aviation, defence, and power systems) and a keen focus on cost control and financial targets.
The company has continued to set itself higher targets, most recently last month when it raised its guidance for full-year financial performance. That has been music to investors’ ears and led to strong positive share price momentum.
If the business keeps doing well, I think the share price could potentially move up even higher over the coming 12 months.
Here’s my concern
However, I have no plans to add Rolls-Royce shares back into my portfolio at the current price.
For starters, that price is 43 times earnings. Although earnings are set to grow, I regard that price as expensive for a long-established industrial company operating mainly in mature markets, even if demand in those markets is buoyant.
As the pandemic showed, a sudden collapse in civil aviation demand can be a big risk to Rolls’ business but is outside the company’s control. That risk alone, at the current price, puts me off buying.
Fortunately, the market currently offers other shares that I like at least as much as Rolls-Royce – at prices I like a lot more!
Should you invest £5,000 in Rolls-Royce Plc right now?
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Christopher Ruane does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.