Britain could face riots over food shortages after a cyber attack, extreme weather or war as chronic issues leave the system in a ‘tinderbox’ state, a major study claims.

Sudden price hikes or supply reductions could intensify pressure on UK food security and result in social unrest, according to the report by dozens of industry experts.

Poor farming policy, low incomes, climate change and just-in-time supply chains were all cited as vulnerabilities in the system which have left the country exposed.

Researchers said one shock to the system could cause a major food security crisis which may lead to hidden market sales of unsafe food, social tension and riots.

Some 39 food experts from the University of York, Anglia Ruskin University and other institutions looked at the danger posed by long-running issues in the sector.

They claimed recent events had ‘served as a wake-up call’, including last year’s M&S and Co-op cyber attacks and global price hikes after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The study, published in the journal Sustainability, has urged the Government to address weaknesses in the system to improving national food resilience.

Experts said a major international war could cause ‘trade disruptions, surging energy prices, disrupted agricultural and food supply chains and escalating food costs’.

Empty fruit and vegetable shelves at a UK supermarket during a shortage in February 2023

Existing chronic issues connected with climate change identified by the food security experts

Society issues are said to ‘create a tinderbox for an acute trigger to cause a food system crisis’

An overview of the existing chronic issues and acute triggers and how they are connected

They added that rising prices would ‘disproportionately affect low-income households, restricting access to nutritious food and heightening food insecurity’.

Social tensions could be fuelled by such a scenario, leading to ‘increases in food fraud and sales on the black market, which could result in more food-related illnesses’, according to the researchers.

They added that a ‘worst-case scenario’ could see public trust in government and business ‘erode to the point of unrest or riots’.

To reduce such risks, the experts recommend ‘increasing UK energy security, diversifying food value chains, and promoting more varied and resilient diets’.

Professor Sarah Bridle, chair of food, climate and society at the University of York, said: ‘The stability of the UK’s food system is a critical aspect of national security.

‘While we can’t always prevent future shocks, we can build resilience to withstand them, and stop a bad situation from becoming a crisis.

‘While there is a growing awareness of the potential risks, not enough coordinated work is being done to address the weak spots in the system, and how people are likely to be affected.

‘Understanding how the system might react to extreme pressure is the first step to preventing worst-case scenarios unfolding in the future.’

Professor Aled Jones, director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, added: ‘The potential for events to trigger a food crisis is frequently underestimated. The UK is not immune to disruptions that can lead to severe consequences.

More details on the acute triggers of food system shocks, with a cyber attack shown above

The impact of an extreme weather event on food security is shown in the above diagram

Experts also looked at the impact of a major new international conflict on the food supply chain

‘Policymakers must adopt a long term perspective to policy planning, and work across departments and wider food system stakeholders to ensure a whole-systems approach to addressing the problems.’

And Dominic Watters, a lived experience researcher who contributed to the study, said: ‘Food crises and civil unrest don’t come from a lack of calories alone; they come from a lack of dignity, voice, and care. 

‘This research highlights how the stigma and dehumanisation of food insecurity are already creating cracks in our society.

‘If we want a genuinely resilient and ‘ready’ United Kingdom, we cannot build it on systems of shame. That is why this study speaks to the importance of co-designing responses with communities disproportionately affected, rather than simply deciding for them.’

The researchers consulted 31 experts, carrying out 15 expert interviews, followed by three surveys and two workshops with a further 16 experts.

They said these experts ‘highlighted the many existing chronic issues creating a tinderbox for an acute risk to lead to a food crisis in the UK’.

Responding to the report, Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium, told the Daily Mail: ‘Retailers understand the critical role supply chains play in keeping the nation fed. 

‘Years of sustained investment to strengthen resilience against climate change, cyber threats and global disruption has ensured consumers have not been adversely affected by Covid, extreme weather, and geopolitical issues. 

‘Retailers will remain vigilant and plan for future challenges, but the system is strong and customers will continue to have access to the fresh, healthy, sustainable choices that they expect.’

Further details on the food price or availability shock part of the pathway towards possible riots

The system-wide interventions which experts identified as part of the top 20 interventions

And a UK Government spokesperson said: ‘Food security is national security, and our high degree of food security is built on both strong domestic production and imports through stable trade routes.

‘This Government is investing billions in the development of new technology to increase yields or create climate-resilient crops, streamlining regulation, and helping farmers produce food for the nation.’

The UK produces around 65 per cent of the food we eat and 77 per cent of food we can grow or rear in the UK for all or part of the year, according to official data. 

The study came as Britain’s supermarkets are facing shortages of several popular fruits and vegetables on the shelves after months of torrential rainfall in the UK and Europe.

Strawberry crops have been particularly badly hit with gaps noted in the fresh aisles at Tesco, Lidl, Sainsbury’s and Asda in recent days, according to Assosia data.

Raspberry shortages have also been reported at Morrisons and Lidl, as well as lower supply of avocados and peppers in stores, based on the analysis by The Grocer .

This follows an extremely wet start to the year across areas of Spain and Morocco which supply a large amount of fresh produce to the UK at this time of year.

Supply constraints have been exacerbated by the extreme downpours in Britain, with UK growers battling with saturated ground and major flooding in recent weeks.