SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart… Two superstars with massive social media followings, Taylor Swift with 548 million, and Dwayne Johnson with 562 million, are brawling at the box office with the cat lover showing her claws over the former WWE champ as Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl is conquering the box office with a $30M-$32M opening/sole weekend, and sending The Smashing Machine down for the count with an estimated $6.2M. That is unfortunately Johnson’s lowest opening ever of his career as a leading man — lower than the $8.5M opening of 2010’s Faster, and below the wide break on Fighting With My Family at $7.8M (which he technically had a supporting role in and produced).
Pulling off a feat that no other major studio has ever accomplished, Swift dates a ‘cinematic experience’ two weeks before its release, timed to her album and creates an immediate sense of passionate urgency with her fanbase who she speaks directly to on social. Even if Showgirl falls back tonight and comes out in the high $20Ms (no one is expecting that number), so what? It’s still amazing for a movie that was first announced two weeks ago. By the way, Swift directed Showgirl. Fans gave Swift her second A+ CinemaScore last night after 2023’s Eras Tour concert movie. Definite recommend on PostTrak for Showgirl is off the Richter scale at a massive 82% definite recommend. PostTrak auds also gave Showgirl five stars and a 93% positive.
Juxtapose Swift’s 11th hour machine to that of The Smashing Machine which began its marketing about eight months ago with early screenings to the UFC. That org reaches 279 million around the globe. UFC CEO and President Dana White gave shoutouts to the movie.
The film goes to Venice for the world premiere where it receives a 15 1/2 minute standing ovation, which led Johnson to sobbing on a global stage. Why didn’t this superstar’s movie about one of the fighting org’s best, Mark Kerr, transcend? Because in the hands of Benny Safdie and A24, Smashing Machine is an arthouse film; it was never positioned as a mainstream play. It’s very non-traditional in its narrative, some critics get it, others do not. This is a 180 from Johnson’s previous R-rated movie, Pain & Gain, under the direction of Michael Bay and with co-star Mark Wahlberg which was a glossy, major studio take on drugs and beefcakes, opening in the pre-streaming era to $20.2M. The UFC faithful clearly see that it’s not the Johnson they wannna see. By the way, that demo is largely a homebound audience, and they’re not leaving the couch for this one; the hope is that they’ll catch it on PVOD. Smashing Machine even gets an A24-like CinemaScore of B-, indicating divide among those who watched it. That’s the nature of their filmmaker-driven movies — to create discourse. A low definite recommend on PostTrak at 48%, a 72% positive and three stars. Any business for Smashing Machine came from the South and West where 42% of the gross is coming from versus a norm of 33%. AMC Lincoln Square is the Safdie film’s best gross with $26K.
Here’s the one silver lining for Smashing Machine: At a net cost of $50M before P&A, with tax credits from its New Mexico and Vancouver shoots, and that’s the largely funded foreign sales production won’t bleed much.
In earnest style, Safdie has been literally handing out flyers to his movie for a while in Manhattan. More on that later.
Meanwhile, Warner Bros is seeing One Battle After Another north of $12M in weekend 2 in 2nd. Others see it $10M-$11M. Even if One Battle After Another comes in at the low end, that’s a -55% second weekend hold which is better than Leonardo DiCaprio’s Killers of the Flower Moon which posted -60% in weekend dos. What’s clear is One Battle After Another, which is coursing to $100M worldwide by Sunday, is bound to ultimately pass Killers of the Flower (which at $200M+ cost more than the Paul Thomas Anderson pic’s $130M-$140M and also had a 3 1/2 hour running time) which ended its run at $158.7M. Killers of the Flower Moon went the distance to Oscar night with a ten nomination count off its bloated budget and a final $68M domestic box office. When it came to sizing up the profit-loss on Killers of the Flower, Apple dodged that given how the streamer doesn’t assess the finances of their movies by regular motion picture P&L standards. As one film finance source always told me, big budget movies at Apple are essentially advertising costs for their tech products and universe (how fair is that?).
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FRIDAY PM: The No. 1 exhibitor in the world’s theatrical release of Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl, is heading toward a $15M-$16M Friday with a current opening-weekend forecast of $29M-$31M at 3,700 theaters. Note these figures do not come from AMC Theatres
There are some estimates out there as high as $40M, but here is what’s vital to keep in mind: This is very front-loaded with advance tickets sales arguably accounted for (true, we heard that last time with Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle, but that found an audience). The notion here is that all Swifties are making a date to see Showgirl today, because it’s the release date of her album The Life of a Showgirl (duh).
RELATED: All Of Taylor Swift’s ‘Life Of A Showgirl’ Album Covers & Images
Although not any kind of October opening record, the marvel of it all is how the 14x Grammy winner was able to announce a cinematic experience two weeks before its release; steal Premium Large Format screens from Dwayne Johnson’s The Smashing Machine, Leonardo DiCaprio’s One Battle After Another and James Cameron’s re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water; and get to this box office threshold with very little P&A.
RELATED: Taylor Swift Reveals How Travis Kelce “Crushed” Proposal & Why ‘Life Of A Showgirl’ Was A Remedy When She Was “Worn Down” During Eras Tour
Swift already has broken the Spotify record for most single-day streams; her pre-saves for Showgirl were north of 5 million. No word yet where album sales will land for Swift on Showgirl, but she’s the only performer to have sold more than 1M albums a week seven times. Swift’s bestselling album reportedly is 1989, which has sold 14M copies in the U.S. alone and going platinum abroad.
Ken Hirama/A24/Courtesy Everett Collection
It was the best of times, and it was the worst of times at the weekend box office — the latter going to Dwayne Johnson’s arthouse biopic about UFC fighter Mark Kerr, The Smashing Machine, which unfortunately is in a sleeper hold and destined for $6M-$7M in third place at 3,345 locations (read Deadline’s review here). The net $50M production was funded largely by foreign sales. Smashing Machine hit tracking three weeks ago with a $20M projection. But after Swift announced two weeks ago that she was pushing her way onto The Rock’s weekend, forecasts plummeted. More on that later. No audience score yet on Rotten Tomatoes. Today is $2.7M for the Benny Safdie-directed movie. Swift stole Smashing Machine‘s Dolby Cinemas.
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In second, is Warner Bros.’ second weekend of One Battle After Another (read our review here), still armed with its 70MM Imax locations, with an estimated $12.5M (-43%) after a second Friday of $3.6M. If all goes right, domestic hits $44.1M by Sunday and overseas shoots to $56M take after a second frame $17M haul for a $100.1M global running cume. Knock on wood.
Universal’s second weekend of Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie at 3,507 venues is collapsing with $4.7M in 4th, -66%. Not good for a kids movie. That will get the big-screen version of the DreamWorks Animation-Netflix show to $21.1M by Sunday. Today is $1.2M.
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Fifth belongs to New Line’s The Conjuring: Last Rites at 2,753 with a fifth Friday of $1.1M and fifth frame of $3.8M, -44%, and running cume of $166.6M, again, the highest-grossing movie in the horror franchise.
20th Century Studios via Disney’s reissue of Avatar: The Way of Water at 2,140 sites is seeing a $3M outside the Top 5. Today, including previews, is just under $1M. Again, the movie will offer one of three sneak peeks of December’s Avatar: Fire and Ash. The 2022 pic is playing in 3D, Imax, with some PLFs.
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