By Jeff Altman, The Big Game Hunter
“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” —Wayne Gretzky
Two weeks of treatment down. One more to go. I can feel the lymphoma is smaller, but who knows if that really means anything. So far, no serious side effects. I feel great and still maintaining my schedule.
What’s Actually Working in Job Search (2025): A No BS Update
First, context. The market isn’t “dead,” but it’s tighter and more selective. U.S. job openings hovered around 7.4 million in June—still elevated by historical standards, but below the peaks of 2021–22, which means more competition per posting. (Robert Half)
What the data says about applications (and why “spray & pray” flops)
Across millions of roles, inbound applications (job boards + career sites) have exploded. One large ATS dataset shows applications per job tripled from 2021 to early 2024, and offer rates for inbound applicants fell ~70% (from ~7 per 1,000 to ~2 per 1,000). Translation: “Easy Apply” alone is now a low-yield tactic. (Ashby)
Another cross-industry analysis found job boards delivered ~60% of all applicants but only ~37–40% of hires, while company career pages and referrals—smaller in volume—convert far better. Referrals were just ~2% of applicants yet ~11% of hires in the 2024 dataset. (CareerPlug)
What’s working (do more of this)
1) Referrals and warm introductions. Referred candidates move through funnels at much higher rates. In recent data across 38M applications, ~40% of referred candidates advanced from application to interview; referred and internal applicants consistently outperformed inbound on interview and offer progression. (Ashby)
2) Company career sites (targeted applications). Candidates who bypass the aggregator and apply via the employer’s career page were several times more likely to be hired than those coming from job boards in the same dataset. Target a tight list of companies and submit high-fit applications through their sites. (CareerPlug)
3) Speed to apply—early beats late. Fresh postings get flooded fast. Reporting that draws on LinkedIn/Indeed platform data indicates that applying within minutes of an alert can raise response odds meaningfully (up to ~4x). Quality still matters—have a tailored résumé ready so you can move quickly without sloppiness. (Business Insider)
4) Skills-first positioning on LinkedIn and in your résumé. Employers are leaning harder into skills-based search. LinkedIn’s Economic Graph finds that a skills-based approach can expand the eligible talent pool dramatically; in the U.S., the potential pool for a typical job could be 15.9x larger when matching on skills, not just prior titles. Make your skills explicit, current, and validated (projects, credentials, work samples).
5) Internal mobility (don’t ignore your current employer). Internal applicants were the single strongest source by pass-through: ~42% reached interview and ~32% reached offer in the recent multi-year dataset. If you’re employed, drive an internal search in parallel with your external one. (Ashby)
6) Professional follow-through. With volumes this high, small execution details separate you: a concise, targeted résumé; a short cover message that maps your skills to the posting; prompt replies; and a polite check-in if you haven’t heard back after a reasonable window (typically 1–2 weeks). (General best-practice guidance; see market context above.)
What’s not working (or works worse than you think)
Mass “Easy Apply.” The data trend is clear: as inbound volume surged, offer rates for inbound dropped sharply. Your odds improve when you add referrals, warm outreach, and tailored applications through employer sites. (Ashby, CareerPlug)
Relying solely on job boards. They’re still useful for discovery and still produce many hires by volume, but they are inefficient for you as an individual. You need higher-leverage channels (referrals, internal moves, targeted career-site applications) in your mix. (CareerPlug)
The balanced plan I recommend (because it works now)
Pipeline: 50% targeted company career-site applications, 30% referral-driven introductions, 20% recruiter/outbound conversations. (Refine to your field.)
Timing: Apply to new postings immediately and well-matched ones only; track alerts to move early. (Business Insider)
Positioning: Convert your profile and résumé to skills-first; evidence those skills with projects, metrics, and credentials.
Inside track: If employed, run an internal search in parallel. (Ashby)
No gimmicks. Fewer, better applications. More conversations that start with a human vouching for you. That’s how college-educated professionals are actually landing offers in 2025.
Sources
Ashby Talent Trends (38M applications, 2021–2024): referrals vs inbound pass-through; inbound offer-rate decline. (Ashby)
Ashby Applications-Per-Job update (volume tripled 2021→2024). (Ashby)
CareerPlug 2024 Recruiting Metrics Report (applicant vs hire share by source; referrals outperform). (CareerPlug)
LinkedIn Economic Graph (Skills-Based Hiring, Mar 2025).
BLS JOLTS context via Robert Half (June 2025 ~7.4M openings). (Robert Half)
Business Insider summary of LinkedIn/Indeed data on applying early. (Business Insider)
Ⓒ The Big Game Hunter, Inc., Asheville, NC 2025
If you are reading this because someone shared it, subscribe. As my mother would say, “I couldn’t hurt.”
In the last week, I released a lot of new content, including:
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Skim and click through to watch, read or listen to the advice. As always, it is No BS.
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#BeGreat
Jeff Altman
The Game Hunter
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