In one of the most astounding global weather events of the century thus far, hundreds of cities across the western and central United States and northern Mexico have endured their hottest March weather on record over the past week – and in some cases, heat that’s never been observed prior to May. Multiple analyses have found that the extent and intensity of this heat wave would be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change.
Consider this: The U.S. national heat record for March was smashed on Friday with 112°F at Buttercup and Squaw Lake, California. That reading came within just a single degree Fahrenheit of the nation’s April heat record of 113°F, which was set at Death Valley, California, on April 24, 1946, and again on April 22, 2012.
Another burst of record heat will surge across the Sun Belt by midweek, one that would have been even more history-making had this past weekend not occurred.
On Thursday, March 19 alone, close to half of all 900-plus long-term U.S. weather stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network set daily record highs, according to NOAA’s U.S. Records website. That includes 418 daily records broken and 21 tied (all from the Rockies westward) as well as 127 monthly records broken and 68 tied. This day was shocking enough, but on Friday and Saturday, the Western heat wave broke loose and spread across much of the nation in a phenomenal burst of dry heat.
At least 14 states set their all-time statewide records for March heat from Thursday through Saturday, as compiled by weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera (@extremetemps on Bluesky). These include every state from the Rocky Mountains west to the Pacific coast except for Oregon and Washington, plus several others between the Rockies and the Mississippi River. See the bottom of this post for a day-by-day tally, based on records and reports compiled by Herrera and weather historian Christopher Burt.
Spring snowpack in perilous shape across the West
The past week of dryness and record heat has done a true number on snowpack across the western U.S. that was already running low for mid-March in many areas.
Snows will be modest and geographically limited over most of the West in the coming six to 10 days. Even in the Pacific Northwest – beneficiary of an atmospheric river of moisture that has been extending from Hawaii (which also brought a protracted deluge that has led to an estimated $1 billion in damage across Hawaii) – snow amounts will be low.
The forecast: more record heat
On the heels of the massive upper-level high associated with the blitz of record March heat, the jet stream will take on a more zonal (west-to-east) trajectory this week. However, there will still be enough “ridginess” in the flow to keep the Southwest record- to near-record hot, and the strong zonal flow will help force that hot air downslope as it heads from the southern Rockies into the Plains and Mississippi Valley. As a result, many local heat records – including daily and perhaps even a few monthly records – will again be toppled by midweek.
A day-by-day tally of all-time state heat records set from March 18 onward
All readings below are in degrees Fahrenheit and are preliminary. State climatologists and local National Weather Service offices typically scrutinize such reports. More formally, NOAA’s State Records Extremes Committee evaluates potential all-time state records, but most of the committee’s findings as published on NOAA websites focus on all-time 12-month heat and cold records rather than monthly records. Note that not only are the day-to-day numbers below extraordinary, the number of all-time state records set and then broken the following day is itself amazing.
—Wednesday, March 18
California: 108° at North Shore (old record 107°, Mecca Fire Station, March 21, 2004); ties all-time U.S. March heat record set in 1954
Arizona: 105° at Laguna and Fort Yuma (old record 104°, Yuma Quartermaster Station, March 21, 2004)
Wyoming: 86° at Belle Fourche (tie, first set at Pine Bluffs, March 20, 1907)
—Thursday, March 19
Arizona: 110° at Martinez Lake, Arizona (old record 105°, set the previous day at Laguna and Fort Yuma); breaks all-time U.S. March heat record tied on the previous day
California: 109° at Dos Palmas, Buttercup, and Cahuilla (old record 108°, set the previous day at North Shore)
Nevada: 103° at Laughlin (old record 100° at Laughlin, March 17, 2007, and Bunkerville, March 18, 2007)
Utah: 93° at St George, Zion Canyon, White Riff, and San Juan (tie, first set at La Verkin, March 21, 2004, and Lytle Ranch, March 22, 2004)
Wyoming: 87° at Torrington and Guernsey (old record: 86° at Pine Bluffs, March 20, 1907)
— Friday, March 20
Arizona: 112° at Martinez Lake, and Fort Yuma (old record 110°, set the previous day at Martinez Lake, and breaks all-time U.S. March heat record set the previous day)
California: 112° at Squaw Lake and Buttercup (old record 109°, set the previous day at Dos Palmas, Buttercup, and Cahuilla, and breaks all-time U.S. March heat record set the previous day
Idaho: 86° at Boise River (old record 85° at Grande View, March 29, 1966, and Swan Falls, March 30, 1960)
Missouri: 95°F at Harrisonville (tie, with 95° at Belle, March 21, 1907)
Nevada: 104° at Cottonwood Cove (old record 103° at Laughlin, set the previous day)
New Mexico: 99° at Draw Near (tie, with 99° at Roswell No. 2 March 31, 1946)
Utah: 95° at St George COOP station, Zion Canyon, White Riff, and San Juan (old record: 93°, first set at La Verkin, March 21, 2004, and Lytle Ranch, March 22, 2004, and tied at four other locations on March 19, 2026)
Wyoming: 87° at Torrington and Guernsey (tied with the same reading at the same two locations the previous day)
— Saturday, March 21
Colorado: 96° at Burlington and Campo (ties old record from Holly, March 19, 1907)
Idaho: 86° at Boise River (ties old record of 86°F at Boise River on the previous day)
Iowa: 97° at Hitchcock (old record 92° near Glenwood on March 29, 1986, plus three other instances in 1907 and 1910)
Kansas: 101° at Phillipsburg (old record 100° at Cimarron and three other locations, March 19, 1907)
Minnesota: 88° at Luverne and Quentin Airport ASOS (ties old record of 88° at Montevideo, March 24, 1910)
Missouri: 97° at Harrisonville and St. Charles (old record 95° at Harrisonville on Friday and Belle on March 21, 1907)
New Mexico: 100° at Carlsbad (old record 99°F at Draw Near on Friday and other locations previously)
Nebraska: 99° at Cambridge and Little Blue River (old record 98° at Red Cloud, March 21, 1907)
South Dakota: 97° at Vermilion (old record 96° at Tyndall, March 30, 1943)
Utah: 97° at St. George COOP station (old record 95°F on Friday at St. George and other locations)
Wyoming: 90° at Torrington, Guernsey and Wheatland (old record 87°F set on Friday)
— Sunday, March 22 [pending possible additions]
New Mexico: 100° at Carlsbad (tied with the same reading at Carlsbad on Saturday)
Below are a few of the cities that could tie or break their all-time March records this week, based on the National Weather Service forecasts in place on Sunday night, March 22. Several of these all-time March records were set just days ago. A number of other places will hit temperatures this week that would have set monthly records were it not for the past week’s head-spinning heat wave.
Las Vegas, Nevada (current record 97° on Friday, March 20; forecast high 98° on Wednesday, March 25)
Albuquerque, New Mexico (current record 91° on Saturday, March 21; forecast high 94° on Wednesday, March 25)
Denver, Colorado (current record 84° on March 26, 1971; forecast high 90° on Wednesday, March 25)
Lubbock, Texas (current record 98° on Saturday, March 21; forecast high 100° on Wednesday, March 25)
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (current record 97° on March 19, 1907; forecast high 97° on Thursday, March 26)
Memphis, Tennessee (current record 97° on March 9, 1911; forecast high 97° on Thursday, March 26)
Long-range models keep most of the contiguous United States swaddled in unusual warmth for at least the next week, with a cold front providing some limited relief from the Midwest eastward. Precipitation will be scant in most areas through the end of the month, apart from the Pacific Northwest and a frontal zone near the Ohio Valley. As a result of the record heat and unusual dryness this month, NOAA is predicting a considerable expansion of drought conditions over the western U.S.
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