JD Vance privately fears the war in Iran will be a catastrophe, with his 2028 presidential odds now in freefall.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have basked in the glory of Operation Epic Fury, which killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, while Vance has faded into the background.
The conflict spiraled on Friday as the US death toll hit 11, Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani defiantly took to the streets of Tehran, the Strait of Hormuz remained under siege and gas prices climbed to $3.60 a gallon.
Vance is ‘worried about success’, a senior administration official confirmed just days after Donald Trump admitted on stage that the Vice President had been ‘less enthusiastic’ about the US-Israeli strikes than other cabinet members.
Vance ‘just opposes’ the war and remains ‘skeptical’, a senior official said, while a second told Politico he had offered ‘a different point of view’ but has since fallen in line. ‘Once the decision has been made, he’s fully on board,’ the official said.
Vance pushed for swift, decisive action to minimize casualties, sources said.
He pressed Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine and CIA Director John Ratcliffe at a meeting ahead of the strikes, questioning them on the risks and complexities.
He is now walking a tightrope in public as daylight emerges between himself and Trump for the first time.
Vice President JD Vance salutes as an US Army carry team moves the transfer case containing the remains of Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington, 26, of Glendale, Kentucky, Monday March 9
US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump arrive for a Women’s History Month event in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on March 12
Black smoke rises following an airstrike, as Iranians take part in the Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day rally, a commemoration in support of the Palestinian people on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, in Tehran on March 13
Then-Senator Vance, an Iraq war veteran, backed Trump’s second term in a 2023 op-ed, writing in the Wall Street Journal that ‘he won’t recklessly send Americans to fight wars overseas.’
Vance told Fox News on March 2 that Trump would not allow the US ‘to get into a multiyear conflict with no clear end in sight and no clear objective.’
He said the war would not end until Trump ‘accomplishes that all-important objective of ensuring that Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon.’
Trump’s stated aims had initially been unclear, vindicating some of Vance’s privately expressed concerns, as he called on Iranians to rise up and overthrow the regime.
The administration has since defined four objectives: destroying Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, annihilating its navy, eliminating its nuclear ambitions, and severing its regional proxy networks.
But Trump remains mercurial, sending global oil prices skyrocketing last week when he demanded Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender’ and said that he must have a role in deciding Iran’s new supreme leader.
The US death toll rose to 11 on Thursday when a refueling aircraft crashed over Iraq, while more than 150 American troops have been wounded.
Hours later, Iran’s top national security official Larijani marched with crowds in Tehran demonstrating against Israel on the last day of Ramadan. He taunted Trump, claiming the President ‘didn’t realize’ Iran is ‘mature and determined’.
Iran launched fresh attacks on Dubai’s International Finance Centre as explosions rocked the city with thick smoke rising above its skyline.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows, remains under siege despite Hegseth telling a press briefing ‘you don’t need to worry about it.’
Gas prices have hit $3.60 per gallon on average, up from $2.90 before the war, according to AAA.
A US Air Force B-1 Lancer bombers carrying Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) are prepared for take off, from RAF Fairford in south-west England on March 13
Black smoke rises after an airstrike as Iranians take part in the Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day rally, a commemoration in support of the Palestinian people on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, in Tehran on March 13
An Iranian security force officer stands guard next to a huge billboard of Iran’s newly nominated supreme leader Ayatollah Mojataba Khamenei during Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day rally, a commemoration in support of the Palestinian people on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, in Tehran on March 13
An Iranian woman reacts as she takes part in the Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day rally, a commemoration in support of the Palestinian people on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, in Tehran on March 13
Vance spokeswoman Taylor Van Kirk said ‘the Vice President is a proud member of the President’s national security team’ and ‘keeps his counsel to the President private.’
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said ‘efforts to drive a wedge between President Trump and Vice President Vance are totally misguided.’
Vance leads early polling to become the GOP’s 2028 presidential nominee, an exclusive Daily Mail/JL Partners survey shows.
Nineteen percent of respondents named Vance the most influential member of Trump’s inner circle, with Rubio second on 12 percent.
Vance, who enjoyed a 29-point lead over Rubio in July, now sits level with the Secretary of State, each given an 18 percent chance of winning the presidency in 2028 by prediction site Kalshi.
California Governor Gavin Newsom trails by just one point as a potential Democratic Party challenger.
