For one brief, shining moment it was a triumph. Sir Keir Starmer arrived at the White House for negotiations with the man who literally wrote the book on The Art Of The Deal. He left with Donald Trump’s blessing for a settlement over Chagos, a putative commitment to Ukraine’s security, a promise of a trade agreement and a gushing compliment about his ‘beautiful’ wife.
In return, the Prime Minister merely had to part with an invitation to tea with King Charles, and some warm words about the importance of the Special Relationship.
And then everything turned to dust.
In 40 minutes that will live in infamy, the US President and Vice-President ambushed, berated and belittled Volodymyr Zelensky, and leapt to the defence of Vladimir Putin. At which point the piece of paper Starmer had brandished in the Oval Office containing an invitation to Balmoral suddenly had all the import of the piece of paper Neville Chamberlain had waved in 1938 when declaring ‘peace in our time’.
To understand the scale of the diplomatic explosion that has detonated around the UK Government, it is vital to understand the amount of planning invested in the Prime Minister’s Washington visit. Starmer was on US soil for just over 24 hours. But the groundwork had been laid several years before.
Soon after being appointed Shadow Foreign Secretary, David Lammy sat down with his leader to set out their international strategy. And both men agreed that despite serious concerns about his political philosophy and temperament, they had to begin planning for a possible Trump presidency.
A meeting was arranged with Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita, where Lammy – a veteran of Labour’s exhausting march out of the wilderness of opposition – immediately recognised his political acumen and tenacity. ‘David came back from that meeting and said, “I think these guys are going to win. We have to get ready,’’’ a Labour source told me.
Downing Street believed they had an opportunity to position the UK as a ‘bridge’ between the US and Europe, but now that appears to be a bridge to nowhere, writes Dan Hodges
What followed was an urgent and intensive effort to crash ‘Trumpworld’. Lammy embarked on a round of cross-Atlantic shuttle diplomacy, knocking on the doors of every senior Republican politician and operative who could provide an entry to the Trump inner circle. Important early contacts were Senator Lindsey Graham, a key Trump ally; Mike Pompeo, Trump’s former CIA director, and Elbridge Colby, who developed Trump’s strategic defence policy during his first term.
But most significant was the bromance Lammy developed with JD Vance, at that time a relatively junior Senator from Ohio. ‘David and Vance connected straight away,’ another Labour official told me. ‘Their politics are different but they come from quite similar backgrounds. But when they met, while we knew he’d probably have some role in any new Trump administration, we had no idea he’d become Vice-President.’
When Lammy and Vance sat down at the Munich Security Conference a fortnight ago, both men joked about how they’d gone up in the world since their meeting at the same event 12 months earlier. But their bilateral also had a more serious purpose, enabling them to begin to finalise the terms of the upcoming White House summit. ‘That was good for getting clarity on where everyone stood,’ a Foreign Office source revealed.
Another key element was the work done by the diplomatic ‘sherpas’ at the US Embassy in Washington. Starmer and Lammy were advised to study the skilful way the late Japanese premier Shinzo Abe had handled his own tricky White House negotiations.
Keir Starmer’s White House meeting with the President was a brief, shining moment which turned to dust the moment Mr Trump started belittling Volodymyr Zelensky, writes Dan Hodges
Foreign Secretary David Lammy laid the foundations for Sir Keir’s White House visit years before Labour came to power, embarking on a round of cross-Atlantic shuttle diplomacy
Mr Lammy, left, developed a ‘bromance’ with Vice-President-to-be JD Vance, right
Sir Keir’s trump card was his deliverance of King Charles’s invitation to tea to the President
The British team contacted the Hudson Institute – the Washington-based international relations think-tank – and spoke to Ken Weinstein, Trump’s former ambassador to Japan. ‘The advice Keir got was to be pragmatic and positive, but always to be clear about our own national interest. And it worked. That’s why Trump ended up telling him he thought he was a tough negotiator, but he liked him,’ a Government source confided.
That pragmatism served the PM well in the Oval Office. But now, as the world recoils in disgust at the Trump/Vance punishment beating, it is in danger of coming back to haunt him politically.
The first risk for Starmer is that his entire foreign policy strategy could now be about to unravel.
Downing Street believed they had an opportunity to position the UK as a ‘bridge’ between the US and Europe. But this morning that appears to be a bridge to nowhere.
There’s no longer any doubt. Trump’s antipathy towards Ukraine and pivot towards Moscow, is not part of some Machiavellian negotiating strategy. He really hates Zelensky. He really hates Europe. He really admires Putin. And he really is going to do whatever he can to settle the war in Russia’s favour.
As a result, instead of being positioned perfectly between our European and US allies, Britain is in danger of becoming stuck in no-man’s-land. Just as Uncle Sam waves goodbye and Russia’s heavy artillery prepares to open up.
Another serious problem is a coming backlash within Starmer’s own party.
Labour MPs had been prepared to hold their noses as he embarked for what was seen as an undignified but necessary love-in with Trump. But they were unsettled by his decision to augment defence spending by axing the overseas aid budget. And they still bear the scars of Tony Blair’s disastrous alliance with George W. Bush, and impact it had on their party’s standing and reputation.
So they will give Starmer a little time to recalibrate his stance after the chaos of the past 48 hours. But they won’t sit back and let their leader pay the ‘blood price’ of maintaining the Special Relationship at any cost, especially if that cost includes a betrayal of Ukraine.
But Starmer’s biggest problem will be the response of the British people. I cannot recall a foreign policy event that has generated such a uniform and visceral public reaction. With the exception of the usual quislings who rushed to social media to defend Trump’s thuggery, there was an outpouring of genuine national disgust at Zelensky’s treatment. And that will be reflected in the opinion polls.
So the idea that Keir Starmer is going roll out the red carpet, and ask the nation and our King to bend a knee to King Donald is now not just sickening, but politically untenable. And if Starmer tries to align himself too closely with Trump, the Ukraine crisis will become his Iraq.
When Neville Chamberlain returned from Munich, he declared to the Commons: ‘In our relations with other countries, everything depends upon there being sincerity and goodwill on both sides. I believe that there is sincerity and good will on both sides in this declaration.’
His words returned to damn him. Unless Keir Starmer is careful, the honeyed words he shared on with President Trump on Thursday will do the same.
