Ancient Maya Population May Have Topped 16 Million, Tulane Research Shows


Jan Bartek – AncientPages.com – Recent research conducted by archaeologists from Tulane University has uncovered that the ancient Maya civilization supported a significantly larger population than previously estimated, with up to 16 million people inhabiting areas of modern-day Guatemala, southern Mexico, and western Belize.

Ancient Maya Population May Have Topped 16 Million, Tulane Research Shows

View over the archaeological zone of Bonampak. Image credit: Dbannasch –  CC BY-SA 4.0

The researchers utilized lidar technology (light detection and ranging) to achieve these findings.

 The recent analysis using advanced methods and reprocessed lidar data has revealed a significant increase in population estimates, with numbers jumping by 45% from previous assessments.

Researchers now estimate that during the Late Classic period (600–900 CE), between 9.5 million and 16 million people lived in the Maya Lowlands, an area spanning 95,000 square kilometers of rainforest.

At its peak, the region had not only the dense population but also sophisticated social organization.  The lidar-based research provides compelling evidence that both urban and rural areas were highly structured, and had an advanced level of resource management and societal organization previously underestimated.

Estrada-Belli, a research professor at Tulane’s Middle American Research Institute. and manager of its GIS lab, and lead author of the research  emphasizes that these insights offer a better understanding of ancient Maya settlement patterns than ever before.

Ancient Maya Population May Have Topped 16 Million, Tulane Research Shows

Largest previously unknown ceremonial center discovered with NASA’s GLIHT lidar data in Campeche, Mexico. Image credit: Graphic by Francisco Estrada-Belli

The team utilized data from a variety of publicly accessible and private lidar surveys, including reanalyzed environmental lidar data collected by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as recent archaeological mapping initiatives in southern Campeche and Quintana Roo, Mexico.

Through this comprehensive analysis, researchers identified a singular and consistent model of urban and rural organization characterized by residential and agricultural features clustered around plaza groups under elite control.

The presence of extensive agricultural infrastructure, particularly in the densely populated northern regions, suggests elite oversight of food production and distribution across both urban centers and rural locales. Additionally, nearly all structures were situated within five kilometers of a large or medium-sized plaza group, indicating widespread access to civic and ceremonial centers and challenging previous assumptions regarding isolated rural settlements.

The study  gives us now another image of  the Classic Maya, the society that was not composed of fragmented city-states and scattered hamlets but a highly interconnected civilization with a well-organized  system of governance, agriculture, and commerce.

Researchers had much help thanks to the airborne lidar technology, especially useful in areas with dense tropical environments, where traditional field surveys are often limited by thick vegetation and difficult terrain.

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Written by Jan Bartek – AncientPages.com Staff Writer





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