The Chancellor delivered the Budget this week, but the biggest force on the FTSE 100 has been the conflict in the Middle East. Oil’s surging, but I think investors should be looking one step ahead.

What’s going on?

The most obvious consequence is higher oil prices. Brent crude is above $111 a barrel, with markets braced for possible US strikes after the upcoming mid-term elections.

That’s good news for the likes of BP. But the long-term outlook for oil is what matters — and I find that very hard to forecast.

As a result, I try to invest when the odds are on my side and expectations are low. Right now, I don’t think they are.

In price-to-book (P/B) terms, BP shares are trading closer to a 10-year high. At that level, buying the stock takes more insight into oil than I have.

What are the alternatives?

The obvious candidates are airlines, which are huge fuel consumers. The trouble is, they’re often not that attractive as businesses. High fixed costs, cyclicality, and price-sensitive customers are a bad combination. That’s why losses – and even bankruptcies – are all too frequent. 

There are a couple of exceptions I like, with Ryanair among them. My radar however, is focused elsewhere.

Oil’s the obvious way to think about the conflict in Iran. But could the real opportunity be somewhere that has nothing to do with fuel bills?

Informa

Informa (LSE:INF) runs trade shows and has a significant Middle East presence – including a 52% stake in inD, its joint venture with the Dubai World Trade Centre. That makes the ongoing conflict a risk.

Saudi Arabia has pushed its own ‘Davos in the Desert’ conference back to 2027. And Informa’s moved Cityscape Global to January and put the Global Health Exhibition online.

Earlier this week, the firm cut its 2026 revenue growth outlook from 6% to around 3%. But the stock’s trading below the 860p price insiders bought shares at earlier this month.

Looking closer, Informa’s events have been rescheduled – not cancelled. And events revenue still grew 8% in the first nine months with double-digit earnings per share growth expected. 

Why I’m interested

I already own Informa shares in my portfolio. The reason is that the company has a very strong competitive position with hugely attractive unit economics. 

Informa’s best events are industry leaders. For businesses in certain sectors, not showing up isn’t really an option and that gives the firm real pricing power.

Its maintenance costs are also very low. Net capital expenditure was just 3.1% of revenue in the first half, with an adjusted operating margin of 26.6%. 

In other words, Informa isn’t just a stock that’s cheap as a result of a cyclical downturn. It’s an outstanding business with deep long-term strengths.

Stock market contrarians

Investing well often means looking for quality assets that are under pressure. Informa’s been struggling lately, but I think the core business is in very good shape.

Who knows when things will settle down in the Middle East. The risk is that it could take a long time, but with clear scope for improvement when it does, I think Informa’s a stock worth looking at.

Should you invest £5,000 in Informa Plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Informa Plc made the list?

Stephen Wright owns shares in Informa and Ryanair.