by Bob Henson, Jeff Masters and Irene Sans, Yale Climate Connections
October 26, 2026

For six consecutive days, strong onshore winds have combined with full moon-enhanced high tides to bring damaging flooding to much of the Southeast U.S. coast. Miami’s six-day streak from October 21-26 with moderate coastal flooding is the longest such streak on record. Since Miami’s tide gauge was installed in 1994 at Virginia Key, the city has seen five occasions with moderate flooding on at least four consecutive days.

The water level on Monday, October 26, was the city’s fifth-highest since 1994. Seven of the city’s top-13 highest water level days have occurred during the king tides of last month and this month.

A Coastal Flood Warning or Coastal Flood Advisory was in effect Monday for the entire Southeast U.S. coast from the Florida Keys to North Carolina’s Outer Banks, and today and Tuesday are likely to be the peak flood days of the entire event. This coastal flooding is caused by a strong high-pressure system to the north and low pressure offshore, which have created a substantial pressure gradient, bringing winds of 25-35 mph (20-30 knots) along much of the Southeast U.S. coast. With a full moon (October 25) and lunar perigee (October 28) occurring this week, the strong winds have brought significant flooding at high tide during multiple tidal cycles. (Perigee is when the moon is at its closest distance to the Earth during the month.)

Three more days of coastal flooding coming to the Southeast

According to the latest forecast from the European model ensemble, the highest water levels of the event will occur in Miami on Tuesday, with Wednesday also predicted to be extreme. It isn’t until Friday that water levels may fall below the “moderate” threshold, giving the city an unprecedented nine-day streak of “moderate” flooding. Repeated flooding across so many consecutive high tide cycles can be more damaging than a single flood at a higher water level, since the coast spends more time at high water levels, allowing waves to chew away and erode beaches and dunes. In addition, the repeated flooding gives little chance for interim flood defense efforts to occur.

Along the coast of South Florida, the flooding will be exacerbated today and Tuesday by runoff from expected heavy rains of one to two inches, which will combine with the high tides to create a compound flood event (see our August post, The floods of the future won’t come one at a time, to learn how climate change is increasing the threat of these types of flood events).

High tide flooding will ramp up steeply in the next 15 years in Miami

Sea level rise has drastically increased the probability of coastal flooding in Miami, where sea level has increased by about 1.12 feet since 1931. In fact, what would have been a one-in-10-year flood in 1931 has already occurred on 11 days this month, with another four-plus days coming.

Since 1994, sea level rise has accelerated, increasing by about 8 inches, of which 36% can be confidently attributed to human-caused global warming. This acceleration in sea level rise has led to a sharp increase in high tide flooding in Miami since 2015.

Accelerating sea level rise will cause high tide flooding in Miami to sharply increase over the next 15 years, and the record king tides of the past week will seem ordinary by the late-2030s.

As I (Jeff Masters) wrote in my 2023 post, 30 great tools to determine your flood risk in the U.S., beginning in 2033, the moon will be in a position favorable for bringing higher tides to locations where one high tide and low tide per day dominate. This will bring a rapid increase in high tide flooding to the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast, the West Coast, and Hawaii. The rapid acceleration in coastal flooding simultaneously along a huge swathe of heavily developed U.S. coast in the mid-2030s will be sure to significantly stress the coastal housing market.

Record flooding pummels the Four Corners area of the U.S. Southwest

Over the last several months, a series of upper-level troughs moving through an energetic fall jet stream has repeatedly focused energy over the Four Corners area, where Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico meet. And the ongoing blockbuster El Niño event, which is record-strong for late October, is helping funnel tropical warmth and moisture into the southwestern U.S., which is typically wetter than usual during El Niño.

This past weekend brought yet another dose of rain atop multiple river valleys already facing some of their worst flooding in modern history. On Saturday, the city of Hurricane, Utah, declared a state of emergency after floodwaters seeped into 80 homes and 50 recreational vehicles, according to the Associated Press.

The San Juan River, which flows mainly from east to west across the Four Corners region and into Arizona’s Lake Powell, has been especially swollen. At Farmington, New Mexico, the region’s biggest city, a National Weather Service gauge along the San Juan hit 14.07 feet at 11 a.m. Friday, October 23, before the gauge stopped reporting, and on Friday afternoon a USGS gauge reached 15 feet. Both readings far exceeded the previous record of 12.3 feet from September 6, 1909. The Navajo Times reported that an unknown amount of sewage from Farmington, Bloomfield, and Shiprock has poured into the San Juan, with a holding pond “completely compromised” and contaminated mud posing a longer-term public-health threat, according to Navajo Nation officials.

Cold upper-level disturbances streaming atop unusually warm, moist lower-level air have boosted instability enough to produce multiple rounds of supercell thunderstorms that spawned several tornadoes in recent days, including at least two confirmed in northern Arizona on Wednesday and one confirmed in Santa Fe, New Mexico, just after dark on Saturday evening (the city’s first documented tornado in 55 years). On his Substack feed, meteorologist Alan Gerard noted the challenges local National Weather Service staff face in issuing prompt warnings for these events in areas where they so rarely occur, arguing that shared regional and national expertise is crucial.

Long-term continuous station records are sparse across the Four Corners area, but several locations have already smashed their monthly precipitation records for October. Much of this water will flow into Lake Powell, helping bring that reservoir above the record-low levels notched this summer.

What’s especially striking is that this abnormally wet October pattern has produced so little snow, even at higher-elevation stations where wet Octobers tend to occur with ample snow. With no dramatic cooling expected through Halloween, a record-warm October is now likely if not virtually certain for multiple stations across the U.S. West.

Two powerful tropical systems threaten Asia as Typhoon In-fa intensifies and Cyclone Arnab nears India

Two powerful tropical weather systems are drawing attention across Asia and the western Pacific, as Typhoon In-fa rapidly strengthens over the open ocean while Cyclonic Storm Arnab intensifies in the Bay of Bengal ahead of a potentially dangerous landfall along India’s eastern coast. Although the storms are developing in separate ocean basins, both are expected to bring hazardous weather conditions in the coming days, including destructive winds, heavy rainfall, and dangerous seas. The next 24 to 48 hours will be particularly important for both systems. Although Typhoon In-fa is cthe stronger of the two systems, Cyclone Arnab poses the most immediate threat to populated coastal areas.

Typhoon In-fa strengthens to a Cat 4

Typhoon In-fa has rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 4 storm over the western Pacific, packing maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 km/h) as of an 8 a.m. EDT October 26 Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisory. The typhoon was centered about 1,150 miles (1,850 km) east of Saipan, moving northwest at about 5 mph (8 km/h). Fueled by exceptionally warm ocean waters and favorable atmospheric conditions, In-fa’s winds have increased by 60 mph (95 km/h) in just 24 hours, developing a well-defined eye and an increasingly organized structure. The storm is expected to gradually turn west-northwestward and accelerate as a subtropical high-pressure system shifts eastward. In-fa is forecast to move through the uninhabited far Northern Mariana Islands around Friday or Saturday, October 30-31, perhaps at or near Category 5 strength.

While the exact track remains uncertain, a powerful typhoon approaching the islands raises concerns about damaging winds, large waves, and hazardous marine conditions. Residents and maritime operators across the Northern Mariana Islands are being urged to closely monitor official forecasts as the storm continues to evolve. The name In-fa means “fireworks” in Cantonese.

Cyclone Arnab Intensifies in the Bay of Bengal

Meanwhile, thousands of miles to the west, Cyclonic Storm Arnab (pronounced Ornab) is forecast to continue strengthening, likely rapidly, over the Bay of Bengal, threatening India’s eastern coastline. Arnab means “ocean” or “sea” in Bengali.

Arnab became the first named storm of the 2026 post-monsoon cyclone season (October–December). The India Meteorological Department reported that the system developed from a deep depression into a named cyclonic storm on October 26. At 8:30 a.m. India Standard Time, Arnab was located near 15.4°N and 88.5°E, moving west at about 15 km/h. Forecasts indicate that the storm could intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm by Tuesday, Oct. 27, before approaching the Andhra Pradesh coast. Arnab is expected to make landfall in about two days, leaving coastal communities in eastern India with a short window to prepare.

Landfall is expected on Wednesday, October 28, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, near Yanam. At landfall, Arnab could produce sustained winds of 115-125 km/h (71-78 mph), with gusts reaching 140 km/h (87 mph). These conditions could cause significant damage to vulnerable structures, bring down trees, trigger power outages, and create dangerous coastal conditions. Heavy rainfall also poses a major threat, with the potential for flooding in low-lying communities and transportation disruptions across affected districts.

Indian authorities have begun implementing emergency preparedness measures, including evacuation arrangements, identifying temporary shelters, and deploying disaster response personnel. Fishermen have also been advised to remain away from affected waters through October 29 because of dangerous sea conditions.

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