The second ran from Aug. 5 to Dec. 17, 2024. Bitcoin gained 96%, from about $54,100 to $106,100. Daily inflows averaged $202 million, with 16 days of $500 million or more and three of $1 billion or more.

In the third, from Apr. 6 to Jul. 14, 2025, bitcoin rose 53%, from about $78,400 to $119,900. Inflows averaged $248 million a day, with 13 days of $500 million or more and two of $1 billion or more.

Across those 199 trading days, the funds took in $46.7 billion, an average of about $235 million a day. There were 39 days of $500 million or more and six of $1 billion or more.

The current pace is slower.

Since July 1, bitcoin has gained 39%, from about $60,000 to $83,500. The funds had seven days of $500 million or more in that time, about one in 11 trading days, against about one in five during the three steep rallies.

The average of about $86 million a day is well below the $200 million-plus of those steep rallies, and there hasn’t been a single day of $1 billion or more.

So, if history is a guide, a steep run higher from here would require a steady pace of inflows. That said, the past is a guide, not a promise, though. Demand coming through other channels, such as futures or direct purchases of the token in the spot market, can also lift prices.