More than half of Americans believe President Trump will refuse to accept a Republican defeat in November.

The Daily Mail/YouGov poll also reveals doubts over whether his backing is helping or hurting his party’s chances of holding Congress. 

Fifty-two percent of respondents said Trump would not accept the results, compared to just 23 percent who believed he would. Another 25 percent were unsure.

The YouGov survey, conducted October 2–5 among 1,053 US adult citizens, with a reported margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Democrats are currently leading Republicans by around eight points in the latest national polling on the congressional midterms, with less than a month to go before Election Day.

RealClearPolitics’ average of polls showed Democrats at 50.4 percent and Republicans at 42.2 percent as of October 6, an 8.2-point advantage for the party seeking to take control of the House.

The findings revive questions about Trump’s willingness to accept an electoral defeat following his refusal to concede the 2020 presidential election to former President Joe Biden and his efforts to overturn the results.

The new poll also found that Americans overwhelmingly believe Trump should accept the results if his party loses Congress. Some 74 percent said he should accept the outcome, including 72 percent of Republicans.

The YouGov survey found that 52 percent of respondents did not think Trump would accept a Republican defeat in the November 3 midterms, compared with just 23 percent who believed he would

The findings revive questions about Trump’s willingness to accept an electoral defeat following his refusal to concede the 2020 presidential election to former President Joe Biden and his efforts to overturn the results

Trump has made it clear he wants voters to treat November’s election as a verdict on his presidency, repeatedly urging crowds to ‘pretend’ he is on the ballot and warning that Republicans must turn out in force to hold Congress.

The survey suggests that strategy could backfire.

Nearly half of respondents, 49 percent, said Trump was hurting the GOP’s chances of retaining control of Congress, compared with just 20 percent who said he was helping, a 29-point gap. 

Among respondents who intend to vote for a Democratic House candidate, 84 percent said Trump was hurting Republicans.

The president has campaigned for a slate of Republican candidates in recent weeks, appearing alongside Texas Senate hopeful Ken Paxton, Oklahoma gubernatorial nominee Mike Mazzei, Alabama gubernatorial candidate Tommy Tuberville, Ohio Senator Jon Husted and Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts.

He also campaigned in South Carolina for Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother Lindsey in July and went on to win the Republican nomination in an August runoff.

Nearly half of respondents, 49 percent, said Trump was hurting the GOP’s prospects in November, compared with just 20 percent who said he was helping

President Trump on the campaign trail with South Carolina Senator Darline Draham

President Trump campaigning in Texas with Attorney General Ken Paxton

Asked who would be most responsible for a Republican defeat, 40 percent of YouGov respondents named Trump.

A quarter were unsure, while nine percent cited outside economic factors, six percent Republican candidates and five percent Democratic campaigning.

Republican candidates across the country are quietly scrubbing Trump’s name and image from their campaign websites after winning their primaries.

Florida gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds, a close Trump ally, removed multiple references to the president, a photograph of the pair and a section titled ‘Enact the Trump Agenda’, shifting the focus to affordability and insurance costs.

Georgia gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson and several congressional candidates have also toned down their references to Trump.

Trump dangled the prospect of a $5,000 dividend for Americans if Republicans retain control, pitching the proposed payment as another reason for voters to back the GOP in November

Florida gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds, one of Trump’s close allies, removed multiple references to the president on his campaign website

Georgia Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson also toned down his campaign site’s references to Trump since securing his nomination

Economic anxiety may be another challenge for Republicans.

Thirty-nine percent of respondents expected to be financially worse off if the GOP retained control of Congress, compared with 23 percent who thought they would be better off.

Under Democratic control, they were evenly split, with 28 percent expecting their finances to improve and 28 percent expecting them to get worse.

Democrats were also more trusted to make families financially better off, by 35 percent to 29 percent. Another 29 percent trusted neither party.

If control were split between the parties, 43 percent expected their finances to remain unchanged.

The poll also found Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was the official respondents most wanted to leave the administration next. He was named by 20 percent, ahead of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr on 11 percent.

However, only 11 percent thought Hegseth would actually be the next to go.

The poll also examined attitudes toward Trump’s administration, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth topping the list of officials wanted to leave next. Twenty percent said Hegseth should be the next to go

FBI Director Kash Patel was named by eight percent

However, only 11 percent thought Hegseth would actually be the next to go. 

FBI Director Kash Patel was named by eight percent, 16 percent believed no senior official would leave, and 51 percent were unsure.

Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie filed articles of impeachment against Hegseth last month over the administration’s handling of the war with Iran.

Massie has emerged as one of Trump’s most outspoken GOP critics, challenging the administration’s military actions and Hegseth’s leadership at the Pentagon.

House Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed the effort as a ‘stunt’ and said Hegseth had done an ‘extraordinary job’.

Vice President JD Vance has fueled speculation about a potential 2028 presidential bid, but insists he will not make a decision about his political future until after November’s midterm elections

Rubio has played down speculation that he could challenge Vance for the Republican presidential nomination, saying he has no current plans to run for the White House

The survey also looked ahead to 2028, asking Republicans and Republican-leaning independents whom Vice President JD Vance should choose as his running mate if he seeks the White House.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio was the choice of 33 percent, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on 13 percent, while 34 percent were unsure.

Rubio also led when respondents were asked whom they expected Vance to pick, on 22 percent to DeSantis’s eight, though 55 percent did not know.

Vance has fueled speculation about a potential 2028 presidential bid, but insists he will not make a decision about his political future until after November’s midterm elections.

Rubio has ruled out challenging VanceRubio has played down talk that he could challenge Vance for the Republican nomination.

‘If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him,’ he told Vanity Fair in December.

Trump has floated the idea of the two men forming a ‘dream team’, although neither has announced plans to run.

Vance will likely begin deciding when to launch a campaign after this November’s midterm elections.

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has been contemplating a challenge to Vance, even criticizing him at times.