Prediction markets are gambling platforms and should be regulated by the states, according to a legal argument filed by the NFL with the Supreme Court and reviewed by The Daily Mail.

In its support of the New Jersey regulators’ petition to gain authority over the respondent, Kalshi, the NFL argued prediction markets hinder its ability to protect consumers, who are left vulnerable by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight.

The NFL’s interest in the debate is not about opposing prediction markets, a league source told The Daily Mail. Rather, the source continued, the amicus brief was another step in the league’s effort to protect consumers with better oversight at the state level. 

Crucially, prediction markets currently consider themselves to be ‘exchanges’ rather than ‘sportsbooks’ because they don’t operate as the ‘house,’ but rather as a conduit for two players. Consequently, prediction markets face fewer taxes and are more widely available because they’re not being prohibited, or even regulated, by individual states. Instead, they are overseen by Donald Trump’s CFTC – something the NFL opposes.

As the league source told The Daily Mail, the oversight debate would be less of an issue if the CFTC would adopt many of the regulations already being used by states. And as the NFL makes clear in its brief, it has repeatedly asked the CFTC to adopt such measures.

The NFL claims it accounted for more than half of all wagers across prediction markets on opening Sunday of the 2026 season – a sum around $1.8 billion for a single day of games 

‘If the Commission and DCMs did so, this case would present a largely academic question with little practical consequence,’ the brief read. ‘But that is not what has happened. Despite the NFL’s repeated overtures, the Commission and [prediction markets] like Kalshi thus far have resisted the commonsense measures that the NFL has requested.’

Specifically, the NFL is worried about specific types of wagers that are prone to manipulation.

Whereas online sportsbooks and league partners such as FanDuel and DraftKings have agreed to certain customer protections, prediction markets have not, according to the NFL.

‘The NFL has made clear – to states, the Commission, and operators like Kalshi – that certain categories of sports event contracts that are highly susceptible to manipulation or otherwise inherently objectionable threaten game and market integrity and should be prohibited,’ read the brief.

Types of bets that could be manipulated include wagers on field goals, player or fan misconduct, or even the timing of penalties. 

Commissioner Roger Goodell has refrained from partnering with a prediction market platform

The NFL’s brief also called for urgency in the matter, citing a need to protect the integrity of the game.

‘It is important that this Court grant cert now to provide clarity before another NFL season goes by,’ read the brief. ‘Billions of dollars will be bet on NFL games through prediction markets each season and any delay from SCOTUS will result in increasing consumer harm and risk to game integrity.’

Meanwhile, without the rigorous oversight of states, Kalshi has been generating significant revenue, according to the NFL’s filing.

Kalshi ‘cleared’ more than $173 billion in overall trading volume from January through August, according to the NFL. And the league claims to be a significant portion of that volume. According to the brief, ‘more than half’ of the $3.3 billion in total trading volume on prediction markets during the NFL’s opening Sunday was generated by the league.

The Daily Mail has sought comment from spokespeople for Kalshi and another prediction market, Polymarket.

Kalshi has partnered with the NHL, as well as some MLB teams, including the Boston Red Sox

Prediction markets have faced significant pushback in recent years.

The divisive industry favored by Trump’s White House operates similarly to online sportsbooks by offering futures contracts with prices and returns that fluctuate like betting odds (i.e. underdogs pay off better than favorites).

Customers are given binary choices (‘yes or no’ or ‘one or the other’) on any number of positions, from gas prices to Trump’s next turn in Iran, and of course, sports: Will the Dodgers win the upcoming World Series? Etc.

Prediction markets can also access customers below the age of 21, which is typically the minimum for sports gambling in approving states.

‘The NFL has urged the Commission to adopt that same age limit, given the unique dangers of gambling to young Americans,’ read the league’s brief. ‘But the Commission thus far has declined, instead allowing 18-year-olds to place sports wagers on [prediction markets]. The Commission’s insistence that its rules preempt state gambling laws anomalously means that, in almost every state, an 18-year-old could not bet on a game through Caesars Sportsbook, but could bet on the same game through Kalshi.’

Prediction markets have been received more warmly in other areas of American sports.

While the NFL remains a notable holdout, leagues such as the NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS and UFC have embraced prediction markets. In fact, fans at Yankee Stadium will see Polymarket LED branding in the South Bronx when the team returns to action following Wednesday’s season-ending playoff loss in Tampa.

There will even be some exclusive fan experiences from Polymarket.

‘We are proud to become a partner of one of the most iconic teams, not just in baseball, but in all of sports,’ Ari Borod, President of Sports Business Development at Polymarket, said when the deal was announced earlier this season.