Watching a Starship launch feels like cinema: roaring engines, viewers in awe, and headlines screaming ‘biggest IPO in history’. Yes, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock has incredible potential and will almost certainly change the world.

It dominates news cycles with firsts: reusable boosters, record launch cadence, and Starlink beaming internet to remote corners of the world. But that’s just the thing: I’m drawn to it in the same way I am to a thrilling movie — it’s exciting because I don’t know what’s coming next.

That’s great for entertainment but less appealing as an investment.

A story that’s hard to ignore

You can’t blame investors for getting caught up. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share on 11 June 2026, raising $75bn and valuing the company at $1.77trn. On day one, the shares opened at $150, peaked above $176, and closed near $161, pushing its market capitalisation past $2trn.

The achievements behind the hype are real. Reusable rockets have slashed launch costs, starship ambitions promise Mars-scale payload capacity, and Starlink already serves millions globally. It’s easy to get caught up in the story, with many watching the launches like they watch big football matches.

Yet a great company isn’t automatically a great stock. That distinction matters, especially when a business is valued like a mature technology giant while still relying heavily on ambitious future plans.

So what’s the catch?

The price of possibility

Here’s where caution kicks in. A large chunk of SpaceX’s valuation rests on future ‘maybes’: Starship commercialisation, deeper Starlink monetisation, and AI ventures such as Cursor. Even with strong revenue growth, today’s price implies extremely high expectations.

Post-IPO volatility can’t be ignored either. After soaring past $190 in mid-June, the shares later pulled back sharply. Some analysts set 12-month targets as low as $115, below the $135 IPO price. Others see more upside, but that huge range says plenty about the uncertainty surrounding the business.

Structural risks add to the wobble:

• Lock-up expiries could bring a larger supply of shares to the market.
• Insider selling may increase, given the enormous paper gains for early backers.
• Early investors hold stakes worth tens of billions of dollars, creating a potential overhang.

Shareholders could easily find themselves riding a rollercoaster driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. That may be fine for a small speculative position, but not entirely appropriate for a retirement portfolio targeting long-term wealth.

Watching from the sidelines

SpaceX might still make early buyers very rich but it might also disappoint anyone paying today for tomorrow’s promises. Either way, I’m comfortable treating it as a spectator sport for now.

After all, the best seat in the house doesn’t always mean owning a ticket – sometimes, sitting out is the smartest move an investor can make. So I’ll keep watching the launches, reading the filings, and following developments from the sidelines. But from an investor viewpoint, the shares don’t match my risk profile.

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Mark Hartley does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.