by Irene Sans and Bob Henson, Yale Climate Connections
September 24, 2026

The Pacific continues to be a tropical storm factory. From west to east, first up – and the most serious hurricane threat to the United States thus far in 2026 – is Tropical Storm Nolo. The tropical storm came to a halt on Thursday morning as it continued to strengthen. As of 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Nolo was holding stationary about 285 miles south of the southern tip of Hawaii’s Big Island with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h).

Satellite showed Nolo becoming better organized, with deeper convection building mainly on the southern and western sides of the center. The system’s slowdown is partly due to its changing direction. First, there is a trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands that will allow Nolo to travel mainly north through the beginning of Saturday. As the system moves north, it is expected to strengthen, and by the early morning hours of Saturday, Nolo was predicted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to become a major hurricane.

The NHC forecast shows Nolo likely coming closer than 150 miles to the southernmost point of Hawaii. By Saturday afternoon, a high-pressure system will build north of Hawaii, causing Nolo to make a sharp turn to the west. Although the turn will be sharp, it will take time, which will keep strong, moist easterly winds plowing into the Big Island for more than 24 hours. Once Nolo makes that westward turn, it will start picking up speed from Sunday through the beginning of next week.

Nolo’s short-term direction and speed are key

Nolo’s unusual northward movement and the slowdown prior to its westerly turn will keep rainbands moving continuously over Hawaii, especially Maui and the Big Island. This will bring rounds of heavy rain not only through the end of this week but also through much of the weekend. More than 30 inches of rain could fall across the southeastern half of the Island of Hawaii, with some areas potentially receiving up to 35 inches. Just weeks ago, Hurricane Lala dumped 43.54 inches of rain on Laupāhoehoe on the Big Island; as noted by Wikipedia, this was the third-heaviest rain in Hawaii’s history, behind 58″ (Lane 2018) and 52″ (Hiki 1950).

Across Maui, rainfall totals of 12 to 16 inches (300 to 400 mm) are forecast, with some isolated locations receiving up to 20 inches of rain. Across the western portions of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals will range between 2 and 4 inches (50 to 100 mm). Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas with steep terrain.

A hurricane watch is in effect for Hawaii’s Big Island and will likely be upgraded to a hurricane warning later Thursday evening. Residents should complete their preparations and shelter in a safe place. Rain bands will not only bring torrential rainfall but could also arrive with gusty winds exceeding 75 mph at times. Tree limbs, as well as utility poles, could be knocked down, leading to power outages across the island.

Large waves could also be life-threatening. East and south-facing shores of the Big Island will experience very large swells on Friday, followed by large swells along western shores over the weekend, along with dangerous rip currents.

Hawaii has already endured impacts from two major hurricanes this year, Lala and Lowell. As Michael Lowry pointed out in his Eye on the Tropics Substack feed on Thursday: “Although hurricanes can affect Hawaii from time to time, prior to this year only 6 hurricanes on record – Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), Iniki (1992), Iselle (2014), Douglas (2020), and Hone (2024) – have passed within 50 miles of the state. With the possibility of Nolo being the 3rd hurricane in 2026 to pass within 50 miles of Hawaii, this amounts to three decades’ worth of hurricane threats to Hawaii in one year.” Lowry added: “Hawaii is under their 3rd hurricane watch this year – the most hurricane watches ever issued in a single year for the state – and has triple the number of hurricane watches than the entire U.S. mainland so far in 2026.”

Just before we get to Odalys, the National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area where a low-pressure system could form about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for tropical development next week. We will monitor this system closely, as it could become another tropical system capable of bringing additional rounds of rain to the Hawaiian Archipelago late next week.

Odalys remains over the eastern Pacific

Hurricane Odalys continues to meander over the eastern Pacific and is moving east-northeast at about 7 mph (11 km/h) without impacting land. The general forecast has not changed for this system. It is expected to continue moving east-northeast and enter an area with cooler waters and stronger wind shear. This will cause the system to weaken into a tropical storm and then slow down early next week. Odalys will remain on an overall weakening trend, but its track becomes less certain early next week as Hurricane Polo passes to its northeast and could influence its eventual path. Overall, Odalys is expected to remain away from land.

Hurricane Polo: A prolonged major hurricane

As forecast, Hurricane Polo fluctuated between Category 4 and Category 5 intensity overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The system remains a powerful hurricane, and its eyewall will continue to rebuild. The system will likely undergo several eyewall replacement cycles, causing its intensity to fluctuate between the two strongest hurricane categories at least through the beginning of the weekend.

The good news is that Polo has finally started to make a westward turn. This means the system is beginning to move away from the southwestern coast of Mexico, but that does not mean the rain will stop along Mexico’s western coast. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect along portions of the central west coast, including Jalisco. Rounds of heavy rain will continue to impact Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through the end of Friday. Overall, Polo will continue moving westward through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, the system should start making a northward turn, and with each turn, Polo will lose a little speed. On Sunday, Polo will continue to move mainly due north.

By early next week, a high-pressure system will build to the north-northwest of the Baja California Peninsula, causing Polo to turn toward the northeast. Although weather models agree that the system will turn, they differ on its overall forward speed. The National Hurricane Center forecast issued on Thursday at 9 a.m. CST is roughly in the middle of the guidance, showing major Hurricane Polo just southwest of Puerto San Carlos early Monday with top sustained winds of 115 mph.

As Polo makes a northeastward turn toward the Baja California Peninsula, it will begin to lose much of its strength, but it is still likely to cross Baja California Sur as a hurricane. It could then enter the Gulf of California as a hurricane on Tuesday, September 29. By Tuesday night, abundant tropical moisture will likely spread over southern Sonora and then into Chihuahua, producing torrential rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, mudslides, and landslides over the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidental in northwestern Mexico.

Polo could rival or top the two strongest landfalls on record for Baja California

Major hurricanes often prowl the waters just south and west of Baja California, but it’s highly unusual for one to strike the peninsula with as much strength as Polo could be packing on Monday. On the north and northeasterly tracks that lead to such landfalls, Pacific hurricanes are typically experiencing increasing wind shear, and dry air is often getting injected into the storm. Both of these conditions will be affecting Polo on Monday, but the hurricane is starting off with such immense power that it could still be at or close to Cat 3 strength when it crashes ashore, as implied in the official NHC forecast.

The two strongest landfalls on record on the Baja Peninsula coast are Norbert (2008) and Jimena (2009), both of which peaked as Cat 4s and then came onshore just south of Puerto San Carlos at Cat 2 strength with top sustained winds of 105 mph. Norbert, which approached on a recurving southwesterly track, damaged more than 20,000 homes and took 25 lives. Jimena approached from the south-southeast and made landfall just 18 hours after a two-day stretch at Cat 4 strength. Jimena dropped record rainfall of more than 20 inches in parts of Sonora state, taking five lives and causing more than $37 million USD in damage.

Looking a week ahead, some of Polo’s moisture will need to be monitored closely, as the remnants of the system could bring rounds of heavy rain to portions of the southwestern U.S. desert. We will continue to monitor Polo’s evolution, what it could bring later next week, and provide updates.

Resurrected Fay in the Atlantic and the next system

Tropical Storm Fay revived as of Wednesday evening. The low-pressure system redeveloped into a tropical storm and reached maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) as it moved over the open Atlantic waters. The 11 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC shows Fay moving west at 6 mph and is expected to decrease its forward speed over the next few days. By Saturday afternoon, Fay will enter an area with stronger wind shear, which will put the system on a weakening trend. By the end of the weekend, Fay should become a remnant low without affecting land.

Farther east, we continue to monitor a tropical wave that exited Africa and is located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing very disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and if it does become a tropical system, it will likely be very short-lived. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance of development during the next two days, and the next name on the list is Gonzalo. The Cabo Verde Islands would be the area most likely to experience impacts from the system, including gusty winds and periods of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding on Friday.

Jeff Masters contributed to this post.

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