Andy Burnham could need a Left-wing ‘rainbow coalition’ deal if he pulls the trigger on a snap election, a poll suggested today.
Rumours are swirling at Westminster that the PM is considering going to the country early to get his own mandate.
Although he has dismissed the idea, the move could free him from the commitments in Keir Starmer’s manifesto, including red lines against increasing income tax and unwinding Brexit.
However, YouGov research this morning indicates that the result would currently be a Commons deadlock, with the main parties effectively tied.
The survey found Labour was ahead on 23 per cent, but Mr Burnham’s bounce since taking over as PM seems to have stalled.
Meanwhile, the Tories were up a point over the past week to 21 per cent support, matching Reform. Nigel Farage’s party dropped two points to record its lowest score since January last year.
YouGov research this morning indicates that a snap election soon could result in a Commons deadlock, with the main parties effectively tied
Rumours are swirling at Westminster that the PM is considering going to the country early to get his own mandate
All three are within the margin of error for such polls, suggesting that they are level-pegging.
The Greens were up three points on 14 per cent, while the Lib Dems were down one on 12 per cent.
If the figures were replicated in a general election they would almost certainly produce a hung Parliament.
Electoral Calculus’s model estimates the result would be 221 Labour MPs, 148 Tories, 120 Reform, 70 Lib Dems and 34 each for the Greens and SNP.
Mr Burnham’s best chance of forming a Government could be to line up with the Lib Dems and Greens, and potentially the SNP.
There would be intense haggling over policies, with inevitable fears smaller partners would be able to insist on pet projects – such as another Scottish referendum or a proportional representation voting system.
If Mr Burnham pulled the trigger on an election he might need to do a deal with Lib Dem leader Ed Davey (pictured)
Green leader Zack Polanski could also have a great deal of leverage in a hung Parliament
Mr Burnham has previously backed ditching first past the post and rejoining the EU, both of which could be attractive to the Lib Dems and Greens.
Calling an election would be a bold gamble given the barrage of cost pressures facing voters.
Oil prices are running at over $100 a barrel, with projections that the energy price cap will rise by a quarter in the New Year alongside multiple interest rate hikes.
Mr Burnham has denied plans to call an early election, saying he will ‘work to the 2024 manifesto’.
