Germany’s hard-Right AfD today predicted that Chancellor Friedrich Merz would be out of office before the end of the year, a day after his centre-Right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party suffered two bruising state election defeats. 

Alternative for Germany came first in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania where the CDU sank to 4.9 per cent, below the threshold to stay in parliament and its worst result since the party was formed in 1945.

It led Leif-Erik Holm, the AfD’s top candidate in the Baltic Sea coastal state, to announce that ‘the chancellor certainly won’t make it to the end of the year’, adding: ‘I think the twilight of the chancellor’s era has begun.’

As AfD figures bragged about their state election wins, the party announced a formal partnership with hard-Right Italian party Future Nazionale (FN) over the weekend. 

At a rally in the central Italian city of Orvieto on Sunday, FN leader Roberto Vannacci introduced AfD’s Marc Jongen, telling the crowd: ‘”Alarm! Alarming!” they all said, but as you can see he doesn’t have a shaved head or tattoos… He is a distinguished professor of philosophy with a great career.’ 

Mr Jongen boasted to the crowd that it would not be long before the Italian and German parties ‘greet each other through our respective governments’.

Meanwhile, in just 16 months in office, Mr Merz has seen his approval ratings plummet while his party has suffered a string of state vote losses against AfD, which also leads the nationwide polls.

He today vowed to keep his ruling coalition together for the sake of Germany’s ‘democratic future’. 

People attend the AfD final election campaign ahead of the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election in central Schwerin, Germany, September 19, 2026

German Chancellor and leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz attends a press conference at CDU party’s headquarters after a CDU party board meeting in Berlin, Germany, on September 21 2026

‘We are determined to live up to the historic responsibilities our country is facing,’ said Mr Merz about the coalition between his centre-right CDU and the centre-left SPD.

‘It is about nothing less, and nothing more, than the democratic future of our country.’

The SPD also vowed to remain in the coalition despite the centre-right party suffering heavy losses in Sunday’s votes, while hinting it would push for changes to planned reforms. 

Despite calls for him to step down, Merz repeated he would remain in office and seek to push through hard-fought economic and social welfare reforms.

‘But we know that we owe people answers to their worries, to their fears,’ he said.

Merz pushed back at criticism that his own low popularity ratings were behind the election defeats.

‘The reasons for these election results go far beyond my own person,’ he said.

‘We are witnessing a profound transformation of the political party system in Germany as well as in many other countries around the world.’

Fighting speculation that his CDU/CSU bloc may try to oust him, the 70-year-old chancellor took the unusual step of addressing the nation on TV on Sunday, just minutes after the first exit polls were announced.

Mr Merz admitted that his CDU had suffered a ‘disaster’ in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

While the AfD came first there, the centre-left SPD party looks set to continue governing the state if it can form a coalition with Left-wing allies.

After the CDU was also soundly defeated by a far-left Die Linke in Berlin, Mr Merz charged that ‘trust in our country’s institutions is waning’ and being ‘actively undermined by radical parties on both the left and the right’.

‘What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience,’ Mr Merz said. ‘I will demonstrate this as CDU party chairman and, above all, as chancellor of our country.’

Analysts saw it as an attempt to gain the advantage before another hailstorm of criticism.

‘His extremely early move shows that Merz is staking a claim to define the narrative,’ political scientist Oliver Lembcke of Ruhr University Bochum told AFP.

Mr Lembcke labelled this ‘leadership from a defensive position – and an attempt to prevent a personnel debate with an uncertain outcome from gathering steam’.

Alternative for Germany came first in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania where the CDU sank to 4.9 per cent

Roberto Vannacci (pictured), the head of Future Nazionale, at a rally on Sunday 

ING bank economist Carsten Brzeski said of Mr Merz’s unusual TV address: ‘Read the appearance for what it was, an attempt to choke off the speculation about his possible resignation that has been building in recent weeks.’

The chancellor has also cleared his calendar for the following days and skipped a trip to New York for the UN General Assembly to deal with potential aftershocks from the votes.

Hard-right figures across Europe almost immediately began gloating at the CDU defeat. 

In the Netherlands Geert Wilders, who has led the Party for Freedom (PVV) since its founding in 2006, said last night on X: ‘Bye bye Merz.’

On top of this, the Kremlin in Russia today claimed that Germans were looking for a political ‘alternative’ after Mr Merz’s election defeats.

‘To a large extent, the decline in the competitiveness of the German economy is due to the fact that Germany has stopped purchasing cheap Russian gas and started buying very expensive gas,’ Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

‘Naturally, the Germans – or at least some of them – are looking for an alternative to the current government in order to improve their situation,’ he added.

Mr Merz has been fighting off rumours he may be ousted for weeks.

Names of hopefuls for the top job that have been floated include Hendrik Wuest, state premier of populous North Rhine-Westphalia, and Markus Soeder, the Bavarian state premier and head of the CSU, the regional sister party of the CDU.

However, no contender has made an open move for the job – perhaps fearing the act of disloyalty could backfire, or intimidated by the tough task of trying to revive the party’s fortunes during one of its worst-ever crises.

When Mr Merz took office in May last year, he vowed to reboot a flagging economy, rebuild the military to deter Russia and reduce irregular immigration to soothe voters’ fears and lure them away from the AfD.

But his personal approval ratings are hovering just above 10 per cent, not helped by his occasionally blunt and abrasive comments.

The latest elections came two weeks after the hard-right, pro-Trump and Moscow-friendly AfD also dealt a stunning defeat to the CDU in the state of Saxony-Anhalt.

The string of election debacles comes as Mr Merz has struggled to push through promised economic and social welfare reforms with his coalition partners in the SPD.

Under-fire Merz received some badly needed support from CDU powerbrokers last week when eight state premiers declared jointly that Germany needs ‘stability now more than ever’ rather than ‘discussions about personnel’.

They refrained, however, from issuing a personal endorsement of the chancellor.