by Irene Sans and Bob Henson, Yale Climate Connections
September 7, 2026

As is common during El Niño years, the Pacific continues to produce numerous tropical cyclones. While the Eastern Pacific has developed more named tropical storms, the Central Pacific has seen one of this season’s strongest hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific has seen 13 named tropical systems so far this season. Of those, four became hurricanes, and three—Fausto, Karina, and Lowell—crossed into the Central Pacific. The Central Pacific also saw Lala and Moke. Lala caused major flooding in Hawaii, while Moke fortunately remained at a safe distance south of the islands, bringing only sporadic rainfall.

The strongest of these Central and Eastern Pacific hurricanes is Lowell, which peaked twice as a Category 5 storm over the Labor Day weekend and was expected to pass just west of Kauai and Niihau on Monday night, forcing a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for Kauai County and a tropical storm watch for Oahu (see below).

The Pacific’s storm factory is going strong

Former Hurricane Karina, which peaked at Category 4 strength, was declared post-tropical on Sunday afternoon HST after more than 10 days roaming the Eastern North Pacific as a named system. Though it never threatened land directly, Karina has influenced Lowell’s track by weakening the area of high pressure north of Hawaii. This allowed Lowell to make a sharp turn to the north on Sunday, September 6, setting the storm up to pass very near the westernmost of Hawaii’s major islands on Monday night.

Lowell has been a remarkable storm. It rapidly intensified from maximum sustained winds of 80 mph early Tuesday morning HST to 155 mph by early Wednesday morning, easily meeting the National Hurricane Center’s definition of rapid intensification—an increase in maximum sustained winds of at least 35 mph (30 knots) within 24 hours. By reaching Category 5 intensity at 160 mph at 11 a.m. HST Wednesday morning, Lowell became the second Category 5 hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season, following Genevieve. However, Lowell is the only one to cross into the Central Pacific, making it the first Category 5 hurricane there since Hurricane Walaka in 2018. Since then, Lowell has fluctuated between Category 3 and Category 5 intensity through Saturday, September 5. Only two other Pacific hurricanes are known to have attained, lost, and then regained Cat 5 strength: Emilia (1994) and Ioke (2006).

Hurricane warnings are in effect for parts of Hawaii

As of 5 a.m. HST Monday, Lowell was located about 405 miles (650 km) southwest of Honolulu with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h), moving to the north-northeast at 14 mph (22 km/h). The hurricane winds extended out from its center 60 miles or 95 km, and tropical storm-force winds extend 175 miles or 280 km from its center. In its 5 a.m. HST advisory, NHC shifted the track about 35 miles (30 knots) east of the previous forecast, which brings Lowell closer to the western Hawaiian Islands. This shift prompted a Tropical Storm Watch to be issued for Oahu.

Lowell’s center is on track to pass directly through the tiny, uninhabited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. The sprawling eastern side of Lowell will bring torrential rains and gale-force winds to large parts of the main Hawaiian Islands. Lowell is predicted to weaken only gradually, likely becoming a Category 1 or 2 storm by Tuesday and a tropical storm by Wednesday, as Lowell will encounter stronger wind shear, drier air, and cooler waters, all of which will steadily weaken the system as the week progresses.

Lowell’s current north-northeastward acceleration will extend through its passage across the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands before another slowdown and another sharp turn – this time toward the west – by midweek.

Impacts to Hawaii

Winds will increase across Kauai and Niihau on Monday as the storm passes west of Kauai County late Monday evening. As of Monday 5 a.m. HST, a Hurricane Warning remained in effect for Kauai and Niihau, and a Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Oahu. Strong winds are expected to continue, especially across higher elevations and along both windward and leeward slopes, with the strongest gusts likely occurring early Tuesday morning. Weather will quickly start deteriorating late Monday afternoon into the evening.

High Surf Advisories remain in effect across the Hawaiian Islands. Periods of heavy rain may produce locally high rainfall totals through the beginning of the week, increasing the risk of flash flooding. Residents on Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, the Big Island, and Kahoolawe should monitor flood-prone areas and rapidly rising streams, which could overflow and produce life-threatening flooding through Tuesday afternoon.

Based on the NOAA Hurricane History website, Lowell could become the first hurricane on record to pass directly over Niihau, the westernmost of Hawaii’s main inhabited islands, which has fewer than 100 residents. The only major hurricane on record to make landfall in Hawaii was Hurricane Iniki, which struck Kauai on September 11, 1992, with sustained winds of 145 mph (235 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 945 mb. Damage was estimated at $7.3 billion (adjusted to 2026 dollars), and seven people lost their lives.

Still churning through the remote Eastern North Pacific is a weakening Tropical Storm Marie, which spun off a channel of moisture that fueled locally heavy rains from Southern California into the central United States. Marie is predicted to become post-tropical by Wednesday.

Atlantic hurricane season remains historically quiet

Since 1950, when reliable hurricane records began, the Atlantic has never experienced such an inactive hurricane season through Labor Day. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has accumulated only about 4.5 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units, compared to the historical average of 85.8 by this point in the season—roughly 95% below average.

The Atlantic remains exceptionally quiet; with no development expected through at least September 14, it will likely break the record of September 11 for the latest appearance of the first Atlantic hurricane of any season.

Long-range forecast models continue to show little change in the pattern that has suppressed tropical development over the past several months. Persistent strong wind shear, combined with repeated outbreaks of Saharan dust, is expected to continue limiting tropical cyclone formation across the basin.

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