I’ve been tempted by Greggs (LSE: GRG) shares over the years, but so far I’ve kept my money in my pocket.

The growth has been juicy at times, and so has the dividend income. The FTSE 250 bakery chain has secured a place in the nation’s hearts, and that extends to its shares. They attract a lot of interest for a company of its size.

For a while, Greggs ran rampant. In full-year 2024, sales topped £2bn for the first time, rising 11.3% compared to 2023. Underlying pre-tax profit leapt 13.2% to £189.8m. Store expansion continued at speed, with a net increase of 145 outlets, taking the total to 2,618 with talk of 3,000 and beyond.

Why did this FTSE 250 stock come unstuck?

The fun stopped in the third quarter of 2025. Like-for-like sales slowed to just 1.5%, down from 2.6% in the first half of 2025. Both were down sharply on 2024’s figure of 5.5%.

The cost-of-living crisis was finally catching up with Greggs, with even a sausage roll or steak bake a treat too far for some. The government’s increase to employers’ National Insurance drove up costs, as did two inflation-busting minimum wage hikes. Suddenly, there was talk of ‘peak Greggs’.

With a toppy price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23, investors realised they’d got carried away. The shares plunged 38% in 2025. I was tempted to go bargain hunting, but was held back by a broader concern. How far can Greggs go with this? 

It’s been moving into new areas, such as travel hubs, retail centres and airports, as well as testing evening opening. But at some point, the UK surely has to become saturated. While it recently opened a store at Tenerife South Airport, I can’t see its homespun fayre making a splash abroad.

Perhaps I’m wrong, and one day we’ll be reading articles about how Parisians have fallen for Le Greggs. Stranger things have happened.

Can it carry on expanding?

Maybe Greggs doesn’t need to venture overseas. First-half 2026 results on 29 July were a blast, with underlying pre-tax profit soaring 19.7% to £76m. Total sales climbed 7.2% to £1.1bn. Greggs has been successfully wooing health-conscious younger consumers with protein salads and trendy drinks such as iced matcha lattes. The shares jumped 16.3% on the day.

Full-year profit guidance was held at around £172m though, amid heavy supply chain investment, including its new Derby distribution facility.

Today, the shares look fairly valued with a P/E of 15, while the trailing yield is 3.75%. So what do the experts think?

The 13 analysts offering one-year share price forecasts produce a consensus target of 1,809p. If correct, that would see the shares fall 1.8% from today’s 1,842p.

Their stock ratings are a mixed bag:

• Strong Buy: 4
• Buy: 1
• Hold: 4
• Sell: 1
• Strong Sell: 3

Greggs is a phenomenon and the shares are still worth considering, but I can see far more exciting growth and income prospects on the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 today. I’ll sink my teeth into them instead.

Should you invest £5,000 in Greggs Plc right now?

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Harvey Jones does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.