The share price of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), or SpaceX, has been volatile ever since it went public earlier this summer. Even though things haven’t settled down yet, analysts have started to put out their view on where the stock could go in the coming year. When I saw the respected research team at JP Morgan release their target SpaceX share price, I was surprised!
Checking out the numbers
The team at JP Morgan has put a target of $240 on the SpaceX share price. For perspective, the stock currently trades at $140. This represents just over a 71% gain if realised. Interestingly, this might seem optimistic, but the average target price, including other contributors, is $221. Clearly, the view on the street is that the stock is going to climb in the coming year.
For clarity, these are just forecasts. It doesn’t mean the share price will actually hit this level. But the analysts are intelligent people who have done their research.
Why it could reach $240
SpaceX’s first results as a public company showed quarterly revenue almost doubling year on year to $7.8bn, helped by a 66% increase at Starlink and roughly 250% growth from AI. Starlink subscribers have doubled to 12m, while the company plans to launch at least 1,000 next-generation V3 satellites over the coming year. If growth expectations increase from here further, it could help to support the stock.
But I think AI increasingly explains the excitement behind JP Morgan’s valuation. SpaceX has been aggressively building compute infrastructure and signing major contracts with companies including Anthropic and Alphabet. It secured around $14.1bn of cloud contracts last quarter, alongside another $6.7bn deal. Management argues that this infrastructure can generate returns unusually quickly because capacity can effectively be contracted before it becomes operational.
I also need to add Elon Musk into the mix. He’s targeting a $100bn annualised revenue run-rate by the end of 2026, compared with a little over $30bn currently. In terms of charismatic and hard-working people, he’s the type of guy that will do whatever it takes to make this happen.
Still not convinced
Even though some choose to look at the recent results to support why the stock could rally, I think it really showed the true elephant-sized rocket in the room. I’m talking about capital expenditure. SpaceX spent around $18bn in Q2 alone, substantially above expectations. Capex projections are rising too, meaning that even if we see enormous revenue growth, higher costs could mean this doesn’t translate to profit.
There’s also dilution and supply risk. I’ve written about this a lot over the past month. Billions of previously restricted shares are becoming tradeable following the IPO, potentially creating significant selling pressure over the remainder of 2026. This could spiral further if the stock starts to fall, triggering more panic selling.
As a long-term investor, I do see the potential for the SpaceX share price to do well in the coming five years. But with the recent volatility, I’m more than happy to wait for another few months to try and buy below $100. For investors who agree with me, patience could be rewarded.
Should you invest £5,000 in SpaceX right now?
When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.
And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if SpaceX made the list?
Jon Smith does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
