Labour’s plan to release thousands of killers, thugs and paedophiles early could lead to ‘a serious sexual or violent offence or even murder’, a probation chief claimed today.

Martin Jones, His Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Probation for England and Wales, said the Probation Service was already under ‘unprecedented pressure’ and that the early release of more prisoners threatened to overwhelm the system.

To make matters worse, probation staff voted in favour of industrial action this week, meaning strikes could start from October.

This is the month that the Government will start releasing 5,000 serious offenders early over a ten-month period under its release scheme to tackle prison overcrowding.

Probation chiefs say the service is already understaffed and that if probation officers are forced to cut corners it could spark a wave of serious re-offending.

Mr Jones said today: ‘Ultimately, there will be a small rate of serious re-offending, which will result in serious harm to victims.

‘And that could be a serious sexual violence or even murder. Now, the rate currently is a fraction of 1%. But of course, any changes to that number has an impact on victims.

Martin Jones, His Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Probation for England and Wales, said the Probation Service was already under ‘unprecedented pressure’ and that the early release of more prisoners could lead to more murders 

Two of PC Andrew Harper’s killers – Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers – are currently set to be among those released early under Labour’s scheme 

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has been scrambling to find a way of blocking the release of two of PC Andrew Harper’s killers

‘But ultimately, I’m not fully confident that the Probation Service will be able to cope with this massive workload. And there’s a risk that things will go wrong.’

Speaking to the BBC, he added: ‘Probation services are already under unprecedented pressure.

‘I mean, they’re managing a caseload of 258,000 cases. That’s nearly three times the number that are in our prisons, and obviously the early release scheme will be increasing that pressure considerably.’

While an urgent review of the early release scheme by the Government led to around 1,000 rapists and the most serious sex offenders being excluded from it, around 5,000 serious criminals – including killers and wife-beaters – will still be released early over ten months from October.

This currently includes two of PC Andrew Harper’s killers – Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers – which has sparked a furious backlash in recent weeks and left Prime Minister Andy Burnham scrambling to find a way of blocking their release.

Probation officers supervise offenders after prison sentences and check they follow the terms of their release, such as sticking to curfews and not taking drugs.

If they are not properly supervised, they may be more likely to re-offend.

The National Association of Probation Officers (NAPO), whose members voted for industrial action this week, says the system is already over-reliant on people working overtime.

Nine in ten probation staff it represents voted for industrial action. Its poll was only ‘indicative’, meaning another official ballot must be held for any industrial action to be legal.

But union sources said they were looking to launch an official poll in about two weeks.

This would take around a month, meaning industrial action involving as many as 8,000 probation staff could start in early to mid-October.

Ben Cockburn, national chairman of NAPO, said the union would first look to refuse working overtime and then move to full-on walkouts if the dispute – about pay and workloads – is not resolved.

The Probation Service employs about 21,000 full-time staff, but has a shortfall of about 1,500 full-time probation officers.

The latest government data from December showed 5,437 full-time probation officers in post against a target level of 7,110.

A Ministry of Justice spokesman said: ‘protecting the public is our top priority’, adding it had invested in probation and hiring trainee officers.

They added: ‘We have already exceeded our 2025-26 recruitment target, with 1,389 people starting as trainee probation officers last year against a target of 1,300.’