Since its listing less than two months ago, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) has been on an incredible journey. The SpaceX share price has not quite been to the moon and back, but it has seen some dramatic swings.

At one point, it had lost 50% of its value. So far this month, however, it is on a tear. The SpaceX share price is up by 22% just since the beginning of August.

Might it be on its way to regaining old heights – and possibly even better?

What’s driving the SpaceX price movements?

To start with I think it is helpful to refer to a couple of commonly used investing terms: fundamentals and momentum.

The fundamentals for SpaceX are mixed, in my view.

Last week’s quarterly statement was the first published since the company went public, so it was a helpful snapshot of how the business is doing.

It contained both good and bad news. The good news is that revenues are soaring.

The bad news, in my view, was that not only is expenditure soaring too, but it is doing so even faster than revenues.

I think the recent upswing in the SpaceX share price could reflect investors taking stock of the results. Initial reaction was negative, focussed on the booming capital expenditure.

But perhaps investors have mulled over the excellent revenue growth rates and decided that the market reaction had been too harsh.

Either way, the business continues to have a lot of strengths. It has proven, proprietary technology that is already being used by a sizeable, paying customer base.

A share that has had strong momentum, both positive and negative

What about the momentum, though?

This has been critical for SpaceX stock so far and I think it will continue to be.

An unusually large number of retail investors (as opposed to large institutions) have invested. Lock-up periods for long-term investors will expire in coming months, meaning large blocks of SpaceX stock could suddenly be sold.

On top of that there is clearly a split among investors as to whether SpaceX’s business model of spending heavily now to try and scale up, burning through cash to do so, will ultimately lead to a sustainably profitable state of affairs.

That momentum and swings in investor sentiment means that I think the stock could possibly move up from here.

If the business performance remains strong, I would not be surprised to see the valuation get back to its former level, or even higher, over time.

I cannot justify today’s valuation

However, given my own risk tolerance, I do not think the current business fundamentals support even the current share price, let alone a higher one.

Competition is mounting in space launches, satellite wifi, and AI. SpaceX continues to bleed cash and, if it keeps spending heavily on growth, that could get worse.

I see no margin of safety at the current share price, with SpaceX commanding a market capitalisation of $1.8trn.

So, I have no plans to buy. Fortunately, I see other growth companies in today’s market that are already profitable and have a much more attractive share price.

Should you invest £5,000 in SpaceX right now?

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Christopher Ruane does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.