Bitcoin traded above $64,000 on Wednesday, up 1% on the day, with the broader market green ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, per CoinDesk data. Ether added 1.7% to $1,909 and XRP led the majors at 2.6%.

The base case is a hold. About 70% of traders expect the Fed to keep its rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, a sixth straight meeting on pause, per CME data.

But roughly 30% now price a quarter-point hike, and the case has serious backers: Citadel Securities told clients it expects a surprise increase this week to shore up Warsh’s inflation-fighting credibility, and UBS said such a move would not surprise it.