Nigel Farage’s troubles deepened today as a megapoll found Reform is only on track to come third at a general election.
The latest research by Electoral Calculus has given an early hint at a ‘Burnham bounce’, with Labour now seen as remaining the largest party.
It could get 217 seats if a national contest was held immediately, ahead of the Tories on 151 and Reform on 127.
The survey – carried out using the ‘gold standard’ MRP method and taking account of tactical voting – hints at a stark turnaround, with Mr Farage’s party previously having enjoyed a significant advantage.
Restore Britain has been included in the research for the first time, and appears to be sucking up some of Reform’s support – although Rupert Lowe’s outfit is only seen as securing one MP.
The seat-by-seat estimates – produced on behalf of communications agency PLMR and based on Find Out Now surveys – would leave UK politics in turmoil, with no one party anywhere near a stable majority.
Nigel Farage’s troubles deepened today as a megapoll found Reform is only on track to come third at a general election
The most likely outcome would be a ‘rainbow coalition’ of Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens. The latter could make a massive jump from four MPs at the last election to 30, according to the projections.
There would be intense haggling over policies, with inevitable fears smaller partners would be able to insist on pet projects – such as another Scottish referendum or a proportional representation voting system.
In terms of support, Labour and Reform were found to be level on 22 per cent, with the Conservatives close behind on 20 per cent. The Lib Dems were on 11 per cent, the Greens 10 per cent and Restore Britain 7 per cent.
Fieldwork was carried out between June 23 and June 30 – just after Keir Starmer’s resignation announcement – and covered 5,545 adults in Britain.
Other polls have shown Reform still with a comfortable lead, although it has seemed to be narrowing.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: ‘Our figures show that if a general election were held now, it would result in a hung parliament where even a three-way coalition of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens would fall short of a majority.
‘For the first time, Restore Britain has been included in our polling, and they are cutting directly into Reform’s vote share. That leaves Nigel Farage fighting on two fronts, with the Conservatives also recovering ground.
‘Meanwhile, Burnham’s return to Westminster has given Labour a boost, but only time will tell if he can persuade a pessimistic public that another spin of No 10’s revolving door will deliver progress, or if it will just leave the country going in circles.’
The research uses the ‘MRP’ technique of mapping poll findings on to the demographic characteristics of individual areas.
The latest research by Electoral Calculus has given an early hint at a ‘Burnham bounce’, with Labour now seen as remaining the largest party
Kemi Badenoch’s Tories were seen as on track to come second in the research
It also accounts for tactical voting, which the team believes will reduce Reform’s performance as opponents are ready to back whoever is most likely to keep them out in their constituency.
Kevin Craig, founder and CEO of PLMR, said: ‘While another hung Parliament remains the most likely outcome on these figures, the next General Election is still very much up for grabs.
‘Andy Burnham has clearly given Labour fresh momentum, but the challenge now is to translate that optimism into tangible progress.
‘The party that can turn a compelling vision into real delivery will be best placed to earn the public’s trust.’
