The Scottish Conservatives have won an historic victory in the Aberdeen South byelection after a tactical surge in their favour.
Party sources believe they have come from third place to overturn an SNP majority of almost 4,000 by a large margin.
If correct, it would be the first Conservative gain in a Westminster byelection in Scotland since Glasgow Pollok in 1967.
While a formal declaration is expected around 2am, SNP MSP Stephen Flynn wrote on X in the early hours of Friday: ‘A tough night in Aberdeen that some will need to reflect on, quite heavily.
‘Commiserations to my good friend Richard Thomson – a great man and colleague.
‘Congratulations [Conservative Party candidate] Douglas Lumsden to I know he loves this city as much as I do, and I look forward to working with him.
‘We lost Aberdeen South to the Tories in 2017, and we won it back two years later. I’ve no doubt that we can do so again. If we get things right.’
Effectively conceding defeat, Aberdeen Central MSP Jack Middleton told Sky News earlier on Thursday evening: ‘It looks like the Tories’ night. We’ll win it back in 2029.’
Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s former leader in Westminster and current Holyrood cabinet secretary, said it was a ‘tough night’ for the party
Scottish Conservative Party candidate Douglas Lumsden (right) watches as votes are counted for the Aberdeen South by-election
SNP candidate Richard Gordon Thomson is pictured during the vote count in Aberdeen
Early indications had suggested support for Labour and Reform UK – who came second and fourth at the 2024 general election – has collapsed.
An SNP source said the party had been on the receiving end of a ‘tactical vote’ against it, with the future of the oil and gas industry in the North East a key factor.
A Green source said the Tories had thrashed the SNP in the seat’s affluent suburbs which are home to many workers whose jobs rely on North Sea drilling.
A clear SNP loss would be a humiliation for John Swinney in his first electoral test since the Peter Murrell scandal exploded in shocking detail.
Bruised after losing most of their MSPs at last month’s Holyrood election, the Tories threw everything at Aberdeen South in a first step at recovery.
The party tried to turn the race into a local referendum on the oil and gas industry, claiming only they could be trusted with the future of the North Sea.
UK leader Kemi Badenoch was a repeat visitor, warning it was ‘madness’ to rule out new drilling in UK waters while relying on costly and more polluting imports instead.
As well as the focus on oil and gas, the byelection was fought against a backdrop of scandal.
A clear SNP loss would be a humiliation for John Swinney (left) in his first electoral test since the Peter Murrell scandal exploded in shocking detail
During the campaign, ex-SNP chief executive Murrell pleaded guilty to embezzling more than £400,000 from party funds between 2010 and 2012 while married to Nicola Sturgeon.
For most of the period, Ms Sturgeon was also First Minister.
Murrell bought hundreds of luxury items using money from the SNP’s main bank account, including Montblanc pens, designer watches, cars and a £124,000 camper van.
Despite a stream of deliveries to the couple’s marital home near Glasgow, Ms Sturgeon has denied knowing or suspecting any wrongdoing by her now estranged husband.
Mr Swinney has refused to hold an inquiry into how Murrell was able to steal for so long, claiming the long-running police investigation that led to his conviction is enough.
The byelection was triggered by former SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn switching to Holyrood at last month’s election, forcing him to give up his Commons seat.
At the 2024 general election, he held the seat with a majority of 3,758 over Labour, with the Tories 155 votes behind.
Mr Flynn won his Holyrood seat of Aberdeen Deeside thanks to Reform UK splitting the anti-Nationalist vote – their 6,113 votes dwarfing the SNP lead of just 1,244.
The Conservatives used their painful defeat in Aberdeen Deeside to warn voters against making the same mistake in Aberdeen South and ending up with ‘buyer’s remorse’.
The SNP is expected to hold the constituency of Broughty Ferry and Arbroath, where MP Stephen Gethins stood down after being elected to the Scottish Parliament.
